Cold and colder: Winter's coldest air mass next week?

Here it comes Minnesota.

We’re entering what are climatologically the two coldest weeks of the year in Minnesota. The weather maps seem to agree. Get ready for a series of cold fronts over the next two weeks.

Mild start to January

January is off to a mild start. The first six days are running about 13 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. It’s been 15 degrees warmer than average so far this month in International Falls, Minn.

This map from the Midwest Regional Climate Center shows temperatures departure from average for the past week. The entire Midwest is bathed in a sea of warm colors.

Tuesday cold front

A cold front sails south across Minnesota by Tuesday. There may be a few light snow showers or flurries with the passing front. Temperatures plunge this week. Highs in the teens with lows brushing zero will be common in the Twin Cities this week. Subzero cold favors northern Minnesota at night. The one milder day is Thursday.

Winter’s coldest air next week?

It’s always possible to get Minnesota’s coldest air of winter in late January or February. But the odds are better in mid-January. That’s why I’d say there’s a better than 50 percent chance that next week could be the coldest of winter overall in Minnesota.

The forecast jet stream pattern buckles with a piece of the polar vortex breaking off and pushing into northern Minnesota next week.

NOAA’s GFS 16-day temperature output has been remarkably consistent over the past week with a significant subzero push for next week. I still think it’s too early to say if the numbers below suggesting minus 20 to minus 30 for the Twin Cities are too aggressive. But the notion of a significant subzero event next week seems growingly likely.

Stay tuned.