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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Gauging next week's Arctic outbreak

How cold will it get in Minnesota next week?

Birds take flight over the frigid waters below the Rum River Dam.
Birds take flight over the frigid waters below the Rum River Dam, Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2017, in Anoka.
David Joles | Star Tribune via AP

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We’re riding a temperature roller coaster in Minnesota this week. And meteorologists are looking ahead at a big valley in the distance. The meteorological signpost up ahead is next week’s Arctic outbreak.

And it could end up being the coldest week of winter.

Upper air patterns

Forecasting temperatures patterns accurately is largely dependant on accurate placement of big upper-level airwaves called Rossby Waves. I wrote about that process last week.

1717 waves
The jet stream that circles Earth's north pole travels west to east. But when the jet stream interacts with a Rossby wave, as shown here, the winds can wander far north and south, bringing frigid air to normally mild southern states.
Courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Next week’s upper air forecasts still project troughing over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. That means a cold shot of subzero air is still likely next week.

Upper air forecast map for 6 pm January 15
Upper air forecast map for 6 pm January 15
NOAA

The bigger questions are how cold? And for how long?

NOAA’s 16-day GFS temperature output still latches onto a string of subzero mornings next week. We may also feel a couple of days where temperatures struggle to make the zero mark in the afternoon.

Yesterday this model output cranked out minus 30 for the coldest temperature at MSP Airport next week. This morning’s run settled at negative 23. Still repeatably cold, but not quite as barbaric.

NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Minneapolis
NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Minneapolis
NOAA via Meteostar

So It still looks like next week could challenge for the coldest week of winter. Let’s see how the model runs handle the depth and duration of next week’s Arctic adventure.

Stay tuned.