Deep freeze: Forecast models split on coldest temps next week
Snow and extreme cold could make next week one of the toughest of weeks winter
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Get ready for a return to the frozen tundra Minnesota.
This weekend will be respectably cold across Minnesota. We start with windchill advisories through Saturday morning across the northwest half of Minnesota. Windchills plunge to between minus 20 and minus 40 into Saturday morning.
Challenging winter week next week
But next week looks even tougher for much of Minnesota. We start milder, but it comes with a price.
We could see minor snow systems Sunday night through Wednesday that may add up to a few inches of snow. We’ll likely enjoy a few dicey rush hours Monday through Wednesday.
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NOAA’s GFS model has an early read on three separate lighter snow systems. Timing right now favors Sunday night, Tuesday and Wednesday.
That may change, but you get the idea. We could see a few rounds of snow and slick roads early next week.
Deep freeze: How low will it go?
Extreme cold still looks like the biggest weather story next week. The arctic front appears ready to blow through Tuesday night. Wednesday into Saturday looks very cold, with many subzero hours.
There are still significant model variations on how cold we’ll get late next week. NOAA’s GFS is still among the coldest solutions. It suggests minus 20s are possible for most of Minnesota including the Twin Cities next Thursday morning, with minus 30s across northern Minnesota.
The European and Canadian models are not as extreme with next week’s cold, with readings closer to zero. Right now, given the model variations, it seems prudent to suggest lows between minus 10 and minus 20 for the Twin Cities next Thursday morning.
Let’s see how the models shake out over the weekend.
Second wave even colder?
There is one trend I’m still watching. The medium-range upper air maps suggest there could be an even colder shot of air in about 10 days. The upper air forecast maps for the week of Jan. 20-24 suggest a full-latitude trough could plunge down across the central United States.
This type of pattern often brings the “mother lode” of arctic cold down from inside the Arctic Circle. Again, don’t take the raw GFS numbers of minus 27 as gospel. But the trend of another subzero shot that week seems to be growing.
These could be the coldest two weeks of winter ahead.
Stay tuned.