Weekend weather: Southern Minnesota may see the heaviest snow

This Updraft post is mainly about the coming weekend, but first I’ll mention the light snow that’s expected to spread across much of Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. Periods of light snow will linger in many areas on Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon:

The light snow may hold off for most of the Twin Cities metro area until after 6 p.m Thursday. You may notice that the NAM forecast model shows minimal snow from the far eastern part of the Twin Cities metro area into west-central Wisconsin Thursday evening.

Here’s an estimate of snowfall amounts, with most of the metro area seeing less than an inch of snow Thursday evening through Friday:

Weekend snow

A much more powerful low-pressure system will pass to our south Saturday night and Sunday, spinning moisture over roughly the southern third of Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows the precipitation pattern from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon:

The track of the low-pressure system and its strength may change in future runs of the forecast models, so check for forecast updates. You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Here’s an overview of the weekend snow potential:

Under this scenario, the northern part of the metro area would see a lot less snow than the south metro Saturday night into Sunday.

Weekend temperatures

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 27 degrees on Feb. 8 and Feb. 9, but we’ll see highs in the lower 20s on Saturday. The metro area will rebound to highs in the upper 20s on Sunday.

Here are the Saturday forecast highs for Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Notice the teens in northern Minnesota.

Saturday afternoon wind chill temps will be in the single digits in much of northern and central Minnesota:

Sunday high temperatures range from the teens in northwestern Minnesota to the lower 30s in far southeastern Minnesota:

Sunday wind chills range from single digits northwest to 20s in the far southeast:

Snow depths

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, you’ll be happy to know that there’s plenty of snow on the ground across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Here’s Thursday’s snow depth analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

The warm temps last weekend melted a substantial amount of snow over parts of southern Minnesota, but many areas to the south will see their snow cover replenished this Saturday night into Sunday. The official Twin Cities snow depth was 5 inches Thursday morning.

There’s plenty of snow on the ground across most of central and northern Minnesota and the northern third of Wisconsin for cross-country skiers, sledders, snowboarders and snowmobilers.

Check forecast updates of you have outdoor plans Saturday night or Sunday.