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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Springlike pattern ahead: More 40s and first 50s in sight?

Mildest air mass in 4 months headed for Minnesota.

Deer Run snow 3-6
Fairways emerge at Deer Run Golf Club in Victoria, Minnesota as the snow melts in March 2015. Paul Huttner/MPR News
Huttner, Paul

Go Deeper.

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Show me!

Time to open up your local Dairy Queen?

The weather maps appear ready to deliver the warmest air mass Minnesota has seen in four months. Medium-range upper air maps continue to favor very mild air as March arrives.

Let’s start with next week first.

40s again next week

Our current February chill gives way to milder breezes this weekend. March arrives Sunday with another mild Pacific air mass.

Upper air forecast map for 6 pm March 11
Upper air forecast map for 6 pm March 1
NOAA

Highs surge back into the 40s by Sunday and linger into next week.

Temperature forecast for Twin Cities
Temperature forecast for Twin Cities
NOAA via Weather Bell

Persistent Pacific flow

We may see a few cooler days in the first two weeks of March. But the overall upper air pattern forecast maps have been remarkably consistent. They suggest a well-established mild Pacific flow for most of the first two weeks of March.

Upper air forecast map for 6 pm CDT March 11
Upper air forecast map for 6 pm March 11
NOAA

NOAA’s 16-day GFS temperature output cranks out highs in the 50s for the Twin Cities around March 11. That’s still a long way off for total forecast confidence, but the mild signal has been persistent for a few days now.

NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Minneapolis
NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Minneapolis
NOAA via Meteostar

The last time the temperature hit 50 degrees in the Twin Cities was on October 26 when we topped out at 56 degrees. So if we get to 50 in March it will be the warmest air mass in over four months.

Of course, Minnesota can still expect more freezing weather and snow in March. But it’s been interesting to watch the signals for an earlier spring accumulate over the past few weeks.

Stay tuned.