Considerable 'model spread' remains for inbound storm system

Our inbound late-week storm system is giving forecasters plenty to think about.

Forecast models remain split on storm track and temperatures profiles Thursday and Friday. The different solutions have a big impact on who will see rain, snow — and how much.

Let the forecast model wars begin.

Northern or southern solution?

There are basically two main solutions for Thursday’s inbound storm. The northern solution is favored by the American and Canadian models. In this scenario, the rain-snow line lays out across central and northern Minnesota Thursday.

NOAA’s latest GFS model run suggests the rain-snow boundary along a Granite Falls, Minn., to Duluth zone Thursday afternoon.

Recent Canadian model runs suggest a similar solution.

Euro: Southern solution

The European (ECMWF) model has consistently favored a more southerly solution. It shows a quicker evolution toward pushing the rain-snow boundary into southern Minnesota. That would mean a quicker transition to all snow for the Twin Cities Thursday afternoon into evening.

Here’s the latest available Euro solution for 7 p.m. Thursday evening.

Changing snowfall totals ahead

Given the high degree of uncertainty, snowfall outputs will almost certainly change in the next 24 to 48 hours. This system has an unusually high boom or bust potential for most of Minnesota.

That said here are a couple of solutions for snowfall.

The European model favors a swath of plowable snow from the Twin Cities southward.

NOAA’s GFS model favors the heavier snow zone north of the Twin Cities. I should note the GFS afternoon (18Z) model run seems to be trending further south toward the Euro solution.

Stay tuned as we see how the models evolve Wednesday.