Spring rain changes to snow by Thursday evening; 50 again next week?
Models still differ on snowfall totals
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Get ready for some serious April showers — this Thursday, March 19.
Our inbound weather system is unseasonably warm for March. In most years, we would be forecasting a big pile of snow for Minnesota Thursday. But in this milder-than-average late winter and early meteorological spring, rain is the preferred precipitation type.
We cool off behind the system Friday and Saturday. Highs in the low 50s return next week.
Conveyor belt
I’m impressed by the amount of moisture pumping into this inbound system. The tap to the Gulf of Mexico is wide open. Watch the system shove both Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture northward.
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Note how the 60-degree dew-point line (isodrostherm) has already pushed into southwest Missouri above. Sixty-degree dew points will reach southern Iowa by midday Thursday. This system is tapping a June-like air mass with dew points approaching 70 degrees in eastern Texas.
Soaking rains
All that moisture means plenty of juice to wring out across southern Minnesota Thursday. We’ll see many rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches from the Twin Cities south Thursday before the cold front sweeps through and changes rain to snow.
Here are the projected six-hour rainfall totals between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. Thursday.
Chaotic snowfall projections
I can’t recall ever seeing this much spread on snowfall totals a day out.
My best estimate is widespread 1 to 3 inches Thursday night with locally heavier totals favoring southern Minnesota south of the Twin Cities.
50 next week?
Many models bring back milder air next week. We could see 50 again in the Twin Cities next week.
