Rain/thunder transitions to wet snow Saturday night; mix to rain on Sunday

This is classic March weather in Minnesota. We go from rain and thunder to wet snow. If you’re ready for spring, keep in mind that snow melts quickly this time of year.

Our Saturday evening rain and thunder will give way to a rain/snow mix late Saturday evening and then to snow overnight Saturday night. A Sunday morning mix transitions to a rain shower chance Sunday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon:

How much?

Here are the potential precipitation totals (rain plus the water content of snow) this weekend:

The yellow-shaded area is 1.5 inches or more. Dark green is 1 inch or more. A flood watch continues Saturday evening in 7 counties in southwestern Minnesota.

Potential snow totals late Saturday evening into early Sunday look like this:

Notice the potential heavier snow amounts from Wright County into northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The southeast portion of the Twin Cities metro area may see just minor accumulations, while 2 to 3 inches of snow could accumulate near the northwestern edge of the 7- county Twin Cities metro area.

Here’s a closer look at possible snow totals in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

The timing of the changeover from rain to wet snow will be a huge factor in the final snow totals.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Advisories and warnings

A winter weather advisory runs from 10 p.m. Saturday to 9 a.m. Sunday from portions of southwestern Minnesota into east-central Minnesota:

The advisory includes the northwestern side of the Twin Cities metro area. Here are details of the advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 336 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...Rain Changing to a Wet Slushy Snow Tonight... .Rain will change to snow across portions of Minnesota later this evening, mainly near and west of I-35. The changeover to snow will likely occur during heavier periods of precipitation, so snowfall rates will exceed a half inch per hour at times. Accumulations in the advisory area, which extends from near Redwood Falls and New Ulm northeast through Hutchinson, Princeton, and Mora, will range from 1 to locally 5 inches. At this time, it appears that the primary impacts will be primarily west and north of the Twin Cities metro area. In addition to the snowfall, northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts will become northwest by Sunday morning. MNZ043>045-049>053-057>061-065>068-073>075-290445- /O.EXT.KMPX.WW.Y.0012.200329T0300Z-200329T1400Z/ Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti- Chisago-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Renville-McLeod- Sibley-Carver-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet- Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, Olivia, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, and St Peter 336 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches locally. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southwest Minnesota. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Here are details of the winter storm warning for Bayfield and Douglas counties of northwest Wisconsin:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 310 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .A strong spring storm system will bring a rain and snow mix to the Northland tonight through Sunday. Rain will spread across the area this afternoon. Rain is expected to change to snow tonight and back to rain during the day on Sunday. The precipitation will be associated with strong northeast winds tonight with gusts to 40 mph. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 8 inches are possible, along with some locally higher amounts along the South Shore of Lake Superior over Douglas and Bayfield counties. Uncertainty in snowfall amounts remains based on how fast rain may change to snow and the track of the storm. WIZ001-002-290815- /O.UPG.KDLH.WW.Y.0012.200329T0000Z-200329T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KDLH.WS.W.0003.200329T0000Z-200329T1600Z/ Douglas-Bayfield- Including the cities of Superior, Washburn, and Bayfield 310 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph are possible, particularly along the shoreline of Lake Superior, and especially near Superior. This will lead to areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Douglas and Bayfield Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Red Cliff Band. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slippery, hazardous road conditions. The strong winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages could result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

The winter weather advisory that includes Duluth looks like this:

MNZ012-019>021-035>038-WIZ003-004-006-007-290815- /O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0012.200329T0000Z-200329T1600Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake- Southern Cook-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin- Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn- Including the cities of Isabella, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, and Spooner 310 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Wisconsin and east central and northeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

There is also a lakeshore flood warning through Saturday night in parts of the northeast as well as a gale warning through Sunday morning for Lake Superior:

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the NWS shows a marginal risk of severe weather in far southeastern Minnesota Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. There is a much greater risk of severe weather in eastern Iowa and in Illinois.

There was a tornado watch in portions of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri Saturday evening.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 40s, with a few spots in the west possibly touching 50:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 50s on Monday, followed by mid 50s Tuesday and lower 50s on Wednesday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.