Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Rare 'crossover' Cristobal dumps heaviest rain east of Twin Cities

Cristobal crossed over from the Pacific to Atlantic basins

Post-tropical cyclone Cristobal moving north into the Upper Midwest.
GOES-16 visible satellite loop shows post-tropical cyclone Cristobal moving north into the Upper Midwest Tuesday. The system will merge with a second storm front to the west.
NOAA/College of Dupage

It’s raining in Minnesota on Tuesday.

Some of the water falling from our sky Tuesday was in the Gulf of Mexico several days ago. Some even came from the tropical Pacific Ocean last week.

Tropical storm Cristobal is a unique storm. When you feel those raindrops hitting your head, think about where they came from, and how far they have traveled to reach you. Water molecules from Cristobal have traveled more than 2,200 miles from the tropical Pacific northward to reach Minnesota!

Tropical Storm Amanda/Cristobal moisture path
Tropical storm Amanda/Cristobal moisture path
Google maps

Rare ‘crossover’ tropical cyclone

Tropical storm Cristobal is a rare breed of storm. Cristobal’s circulation center actually formed in the Pacific Ocean and developed into tropical storm Amanda. Amanda made landfall on Guatamala’s Pacific coast on May 31. Amanda’s heavy rains caused flooding and landslides that killed 26 people in Central America.

Amanda’s lower-level circulation dissipated over the mountains, but the upper-level circulation remained intact as she moves across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche. Cristobal was named the 3rd Atlantic basin storm on June 1 as she reorganized over warm waters.

The storm then tracked north across the Gulf of Mexico and made a second landfall on the Louisana coast Sunday. Then the storm moved north up the Mississippi Valley.

Tropical Storm Cristobal track
Tropical Storm Cristobal track
NOAA via Master0Garfield

Cristobal is the first crossover storm in 10 years. The last was tropical storm Hermine in 2010. So Amanda/Cristobal is a rare breed of tropical cyclone.

Flash flood watch

Most forecast models bring the heaviest rains from Cristobal just east of the Twin Cities. The Canadian model seems to split the model spread range. It pushes the heaviest rain cores through southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin, with lighter rainfall in the Twin Cities.

Canadian model through Wednesday
Canadian model through Wednesday
Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

A flash flood watch is up for parts of southeast Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin until 7 a.m. Wednesday.

Flash flood watch
Flash flood watch until 7 am Wednesday
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Multi-inch rainfall totals

Most forecast models place the heaviest rains just east of the Twin Cities. The heaviest rainfall swath appears targeted from southeast Minnesota through western Wisconsin.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
ECMWF via pivotal weather

It’s interesting that the moisture in our raindrops traveled thousands of miles to reach us Tuesday.