Severe risk: Severe storms ahead into Tuesday

Another summer week. Another risk of severe storms for Minnesota.

A cold front sweeping through the Upper Midwest through Tuesday will spawn bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. The risk for severe storms favors northern Minnesota through Monday night. Storms rumbling across northern Minnesota will likely pack damaging winds and hail.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has upped the ante this time with an enhanced risk for severe weather through Monday night across northwest Minnesota. A slight risk zone extends as far east as Duluth and the Twin Cities.

Two storm waves

The frontal system will likely spawn two separate storm waves through Tuesday. The first wave rolls across northern Minnesota through Monday night. Severe weather is most likely across the northern half of Minnesota. The storm front may fade a bit as it approaches the Twin Cities area in the hours surrounding midnight.

Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model between 4 p.m. and 4 a.m.

The Grand Forks, N.D., National Weather Service office has updated the severe weather threat for northwest Minnesota through Monday night.

Here’s the assessment from the Duluth NWS office as the storms move east Monday night.

Wave No. 2 Tuesday

A second wave of storms will likely fire along the frontal boundary Tuesday morning. That wave could hit the Twin Cities Tuesday morning, with scattered storms possibly lingering through the day.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model suggests a band of storms developing mid-morning near the Twin Cities, with lingering cells into Tuesday evening.

Heavy rainfall threat

Storms will be moving slowly enough to dump excessive rainfall in some areas through Tuesday. The risk of flash flooding is there.

The Canadian model suggests a band of 1-inch to 2-plus inch rainfall across southern Minnesota Tuesday.

Stay aware for more severe weather watches and warnings through Tuesday.