Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Tuesday thunder threat: Heavy rainfall likely up north; marginal severe risk

We’re watching the next wave of rain and thunder cross the Upper Midwest through Tuesday.

This system does not look as volatile as last weekend’s system that produced a total of six tornadoes in Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Next low-pressure wave

Some of the short-range forecast models missed the timing and location of squall lines in last weekend’s severe weather outbreak. But NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model did a fairly good job.

The NAM 3km tracks our next low-pressure wave across mainly central and northern Minnesota overnight.

NOAA NAM 3 km model 7 pm Monday to 7 pm Tuesday
NOAA NAM 3 km model 7 pm Monday to 7 pm Tuesday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The Twin Cities could get clipped by a little sunrise thunder Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance for redevelopment Tuesday afternoon The best chance of afternoon thunder appears to be east of the Twin Cities.

Marginal severe risk

There is a marginal (read low) risk for a few severe storms Tuesday.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday
NOAA

Soaking rains up north again

Many drought areas of central and northern Minnesota got soaked last weekend. Another inch or 2 may fall through Tuesday.

Rainfall outlook
Rainfall outlook
Duluth National Weather Service

Heat returns

It looks like heat and humidity are on the way back starting Friday. Highs in the lower 90s look likely once again. NOAA’s upper air forecast maps show another bubble of heat building across the Upper Midwest next weekend.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm Friday July 24
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. Friday.
NOAA