Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Timing thunderstorms into Saturday morning

Scattered strong to severe storms favor northern and central Minnesota

Time to fire up the short-range forecast models.

Scattered thunderstorms are developing in an increasingly tropical air mass over Minnesota. Dew points have surged into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees across much of Minnesota.

Dew point forecast for 5 pm Friday
Dew point forecast for 5 pm Friday
NOAA

The strongest storms will favor northern and central Minnesota overnight. Several short-range forecast models suggest a batch of thunderstorms could reach the Twin Cities early Saturday morning.

Severe risk

The highest severe risk favors northern and central Minnesota into early Saturday morning. NOAA’s Storm prediction center paints a slight risk zone across the area through 7 am Saturday. The Twin Cities lies on the southern edge of the slight risk zone.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas through 7 am Saturday
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Overnight thunder

There are differences in the short-range forecast models with the precise timing and coverage of overnight convection across Minnesota. But the basic theme is for strong storms to roll across northern and central Minnesota overnight, and possibly reach the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota early Saturday morning in the hours surrounding sunrise.

Here’s NOAA’s WRF model solution.

NOAA WRF model between 6 pm Friday and 6 am Saturday
NOAA WRF model between 6 pm Friday and 6 am Saturday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Watches and warnings

This is a dynamic situation and could evolve hour-to-hour overnight. Stay alert for possible severe weather watches and warnings into early Saturday morning.