Mild Thanksgiving: About 20 degrees warmer than last year

We’re on the cusp of the latest 2020 event to be very different than usual.

The Thanksgiving weekend forecast is upon us. Though there may be less overall travel this year, many Minnesotans are still hitting the road, or taking to the skies.

Travel weather looks good overall across the Upper Midwest this holiday weekend. And Thanksgiving Day will be close to 20 degrees warmer than it was last year across Minnesota. The high temperature struggled to reach 28 degrees in the Twin Cities on Thanksgiving Day 2019. The average high for Thursday is 35 degrees.

Mild Thanksgiving

The weather maps for Turkey Day 2020 look benign across the Upper Midwest. A warm front blows through Minnesota Wednesday evening. Southerly flow brings mild air across Minnesota as Thanksgiving Day dawns.

Highs Thursday reach the 40s across southern Minnesota with mostly 30s up north.

It looks like we’ll see plenty of sun on Thanksgiving Day. If we do, my read is that the numbers above may be a few degrees too conservative since much of Minnesota lacks snow cover.

Thanksgiving Day climatology

Since Thanksgiving is a transitional season in Minnesota, our weather on Thanksgiving Day can vary dramatically.

Here’s a great summary of Thanksgiving Day climatology from the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group.

Because Thanksgiving Day occurs at the transition period between autumn and winter, Thanksgiving weather can be balmy to brutal. A typical Thanksgiving Day in the Twin Cities has high temperatures in the 30's and at least a bit of filtered sunshine.

Having a mild day in the 50's on Thanksgiving Day is relatively rare, looking at the historical record back to 1872. A maximum of 50 or more has happened only eleven times in 148 years, or about once every 13 years or so. The warmest Thanksgiving Day is a tie of 62 degrees in 1914 and 1922. The mildest recent Thanksgiving Day was 60 degrees on November 22, 2012. This tied 1939 as the third warmest Thanksgiving back to 1872 for the Twin Cities.

On the other side of the spectrum it is common to have a high temperature below 32. The average Thanksgiving Day temperature is right around freezing. What about extremely cold Thanksgivings? Looking at the past 148 years, odds are about the same to have a minimum at or below zero on Thanksgiving Day, as it is to have a maximum of 50 or above. Below-zero lows have occurred ten times in the past 148 years. The coldest Thanksgiving Day minimum temperature was 18 degrees below zero on November 25, 1880. The coldest high temperature was one below zero on November 28, 1872. The last time it was below zero on the morning of Thanksgiving was in 2014, with four below zero. 2014 had the coldest Thanksgiving high temperature since 1930 with a temperature of 10 degrees.

Measurable snow fell on 29 of the past Thanksgivings back to 1884, about every five years or so. The most snow that fell on Thanksgiving was five inches in 1970. The last time there was measurable snow on Thanksgiving was in 2015 with 1.3 inches of snow.

Historically, about one in three Thanksgivings have at least one inch of snow on the ground. The deepest snow pack is a tie with 1921 and 1983, both with 10 inches on the ground by Turkey Day. In 2019 there was seven inches of snow on the ground.

Mild again Saturday

A cool front will push temperatures a few degrees cooler Friday.

But another, stronger warm front arrives again bt Saturday. Highs should be close to 50 degrees in southern Minnesota Saturday afternoon. Highs will approach 40 degrees in northern Minnesota Saturday.

Colder next week

We know more snow is eventually coming. But I still don’t see any big storms on the maps just yet. A sharp cold front blows south across Minnesota Sunday. Expect gusty northwest winds, and temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s from Sunday through next Tuesday.

Milder again late next week?

The medium-range forecast maps still hint at milder than average air masses the first weekend in December.

NOAA’s 8 to 14-day temperature outlook places yet another red blob across the Upper Midwest.

NOAA’s GFS 16-day outlook suggests highs in the 40s again for southern Minnesota by the weekend of December 5-6.

Stay tuned.