Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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Most of Minnesota is snow-free just three weeks before Christmas. And our weather maps look mild again through most of next week. So, what are the odds for a white Christmas this year?

You can clearly see the bare ground across most of the Upper Midwest on Friday’s 1,000-meter resolution NASA MODIS Terra satellite shot. 

A white Christmas is defined as having at least 1 inch of snow cover on the ground Christmas morning. 

climatology of snow cover on Christmas Day

 for Minnesota strongly favors a white Christmas.  Dating back to the late 1800s, the odds are 90 percent to 100 percent across most of northern Minnesota. It’s 72 percent in the Twin Cities and closer to 60 percent in far southwest Minnesota. 

The medium-range forecast maps continue to favor mild and mostly dry weather across Minnesota through next week. Highs by next Wednesday will soar once again into the 50s across southwest Minnesota, possibly reaching the Twin Cities if this map is a little too conservative as I expect. 

It looks safe to say that we won’t see any new snow through most of next week in the snow-free areas of Minnesota. 

A few forecast models continue to sputter out a possible rain or snow system moving into the Upper Midwest around Sunday, Dec. 13. Here’s the Canadian model.

A possible snow system late next weekend holds the best hope for a white Christmas across parts of Minnesota that currently have bare ground. Of course, confidence is low this far in advance, but at least the forecast models are indicating a chance for significant snow for parts of Minnesota before December 25.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Most of Minnesota is snow-free just three weeks before Christmas. What are the odds for a white Christmas this year?

NASA via University of Wisconsin-Madison

Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday, December 9

NOAA

Canadian model output for midnight Monday December 14

Odds for a White Christmas this year?

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