Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Odds for a white Christmas? Light snow chances next week

Friday's storm will likely miss Minnesota. Light snow is possible next week.

Bare grass in Victoria on December 8, 2020
Bare grass in Victoria on Tuesday.
Paul Huttner | MPR News

The ground across Minnesota is unusually bare for December.

Tuesday’s snow cover map shows most of Minnesota is still snow-free. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s snow analysis shows a scant few inches cling to life in northeast Minnesota.

Snow depth
Snow depth on Tuesday.
NOAA | NOHRSC

It’s hard to believe with our endless autumn, but Wednesday dawns with Christmas just 16 days away. Friday’s Midwest weather system likely steers accumulating snow south of Minnesota.

European model (ECMWF) snowfall output
European model (ECMWF) snowfall output through Sunday
ECMWF via pivotal weather

That leaves just two weeks for a weather system that could drop enough snow to bring a white Christmas to Minnesota. Of course, this is the time of year when a storm system can pop up on the forecast maps with little notice. But looking at the medium-range maps, only one or two chances for light snow appear likely.

Light snow chance next week?

The forecast maps suggest a minor weather system could bring a chance of light snow for much of Minnesota next Monday or Tuesday. Both the American GFS and Canadian model suggest a weak low-pressure system that may be enough to squeeze out an inch or more for parts of Minnesota.

Here’s NOAA’s GFS solution Monday into Tuesday.

NOAA GFS model next Monday into Tuesday
NOAA GFS model next Monday into Tuesday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

I normally don’t show forecast model snowfall output a week in advance, so don’t focus on this map with confidence. But the notion of an inch or more of snow for parts of Minnesota is growing for early next week.

NOAA GFS snowfall output early next week
NOAA GFS snowfall output early next week
NOAA via pivotal weather

I still think we’re looking at a coin toss for a white Christmas in parts of Minnesota as we approach two weeks until Christmas. But at least some light snow chances appear possible next week.

Stay tuned.