Tracking potentially plowable snow Saturday

We’re still tracking what looks like a potentially plowable snowfall event Saturday across parts of Minnesota. It’s still early in the forecast process with snowfall about 72 hours away. Forecast models continue to paint potentially plowable snow for much of Minnesota Saturday through Saturday night.

The system

Forecast models develop a low-pressure system in Colorado and track it east through Kansas and Missouri this weekend. The system will push milder air and moisture over the cold dome sitting over Minnesota this weekend. A large area of snow will break out to the north of the system over the Upper Midwest.

Snowfall should develop in southwest Minnesota Saturday morning, and spread eastward into the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota Saturday afternoon.

Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS model depiction of the snow zone between noon and midnight Saturday night/Sunday.

Dry fluffy snow

This system looks to produce a drier, fluffier snowfall across the region. Snow to water ratios with this system appears to average around 18:1. That should produce drier snow good for outdoor winter sports, and make it easier to shovel than last week’s slop storm.

I’ve highlighted three columns in the graphic below. From left to right they indicate temperature, precipitation type (snow), and snow to water ratio. You can see from this NOAA GFS forecast model output that the forecast snow to water ratio for the storm hovers around 18:1. This indicates a fairly dry, powdery snowfall.

Early snowfall totals

We’re still 72 hours out from the likely onset of snowfall in the Twin Cities, so storm track and forecast model snowfall projections can and probably will change.

This Canadian model snowfall output takes the mid-range of the forecast snowfall solutions I’m seeing today.

It suggests widespread 1” to 3” totals across the northern half of Minnesota. In this solution, the heaviest snow would fall across southern Minnesota where bands of 4” to 8” would fall. The Twin Cities would ride the transition zone between heavier snow south, and lighter snowfall to the north. An early snowfall range of between 2” and 6” from north to south seems like a good place to start for the Twin Cities.

It should be noted that the European model suggests lighter snowfall totals, while the American GFS model suggests heavier totals.

Bottom line: The best actionable forecast is to plan for snow Saturday through Saturday night.

Stay tuned as the forecast models attempt to refine forecasts heading toward the weekend.