Light snow this weekend. Lake-effect enhanced North Shore totals?
Several inches possible along the North Shore ridges
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It’s a bit of a tricky snowfall forecast this weekend across Minnesota.
Two separate weather features will bring snow to different parts of the state. A winter storm passing south of Minnesota will graze the state. A lake-effect wind flow along the North Shore could produce some significant snowfall totals.
Midwest winter storm
A significant winter storm will track through the Midwest this weekend. The low-pressure center will track from south of Kansas City Saturday, through the Ohio Vally Sunday.
That storm track is too far south for big snows in most of Minnesota. The heaviest snowfall with this system will likely fall around Chicago.
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Lighter snowfall will develop around parts of Minnesota on the system’s northern edge this weekend. Overall forecast models favor scattered 1-inch to possible 4-inch totals around much of Minnesota over the two days. So it should be a slow accumulation in any one spot.
North Shore snowfall
Winds blowing from the southeast may produce lake-enhanced lake-effect snowfall along the North Shore this weekend.
NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model picks up on the signal for lake-effect along the North Shore.
Orographic lift may also enhance snowfall as winds ride up the hill and wring out more snow. NOAA’s GFS model is on the high end of snowfall scenarios for the North Shore and cranks out some impressive 6-plus-inch totals for this weekend.
Overall snowfall looks light across Minnesota this weekend, with the exception of possible heavier totals along the North Shore.
Stay tuned.