Interesting snowfall patterns emerge from Thursday's snow

Minnesota winter storms are like a box of Cracker Jack. Each one comes with a free toy surprise.

Snowfall forecasts of 1 to 3 inches worked out pretty well for the greater Twin Cities area. Here’s a map of preliminary snowfall totals around the greater Twin Cities.

But the free weather toy surprise in Thursday’s snowfall was a band of heavier snowfall that set up about 50 miles north and west of the Twin Cities. A narrow band of 4 to 6 inches of snow set up overnight from near Hutchinson through Buffalo to Big Lake and Princeton.

Forecast models did not pick up on this snow zone going into Thursday’s system. In fact, many models forecast suggested little or no snowfall for this area. This European model snowfall forecast from Wednesday was among those that predicted little if any snowfall in the region about 50 miles west and north of the greater Twin Cities area.

So, if you are in most of the Twin Cities, snowfall forecasts with this system were pretty good. But if you live in that zone from Hutchinson to Princeton, you’re thinking that’s a pretty tall “inch” of snow on my driveway!

It’s another reminder that small mesoscale features can develop and escape detection even with many of Thursday’s higher resolution forecast models.

That’s one reason forecasters give snowfall ranges. It’s also what makes forecasting winter storms one of the most interesting and challenging forecasts that meteorologists make.