Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Polar vortex blows in: Winter's coldest sustained air mass ahead

100 to 200 hours below zero for some locations?

Northern Hemisphere air temperatures
Northern Hemisphere air temperatures
Climate Reanalyzer/University of Maine

I hope you’ve stocked up on all the essentials for a brutally cold Minnesota weekend.

The coldest air mass of winter is moving southeast into Minnesota. Temperatures in the Yukon and Northwest Territories of Canada will plunge into the minus 40s by Friday morning.

NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 6 am Friday
NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 6 am Friday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The bitter air mass will modify slightly as it pours south into Minnesota. But it will still feature bitterly cold temperatures peaking Sunday and Monday mornings.

The data I trust suggests the map below may be conservative on subzero temps Sunday morning.

Low Temperature forecast Sunday morning
Low Temperature forecast Sunday morning
NOAA

I’d say minus 15 to minus 20 is a good bet for the Twin Cities Sunday and Monday mornings. Temperatures in northern Minnesota should hit minus 30 to minus 40 in the coldest nooks and crannies like International Falls, Embarrass, Cotton and Tower.

Highs will not climb above zero in most of Minnesota Sunday and Monday.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

Long-duration cold spell

The overall upper-air pattern strongly suggests arctic flow through next week, and likely into Valentine’s Day weekend.

Upper air forecast early next week
Upper air forecast early next week
NOAA via tropical tidbits

This persistent pattern should produce subzero nights through most, or all of next week.

6 to 10-day temperature outlook
Six- to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA

You had to know we wouldn’t sneak through this Minnesota winter without a significant subzero stretch. Stay warm and safe Minnesota.