Arctic cold Valentine's Day and Monday, then temps start to recover

The lowest temperature that I’ve seen so far today at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is 19 below zero. That’s not a record low for Feb. 14 in the Twin Cities, but we may tie or break our Twin Cities coldest high temperature record for this date, which is -5 and was set in 1920.

Duluth set a record low temp today:

Sunday high temps will be in single-digits below zero in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but parts of northwestern Minnesota may top out in double-digits below zero.

Wind chill warnings continue in Minnesota and western Wisconsin this Sunday morning due to dangerous wind chills. Those warnings become wind chill advisories Sunday afternoon in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with wind chill warnings continuing to the west:

Here are details of the Sunday morning wind chill warning in the Twin Cities metro area, which becomes a wind chill advisory at 11 a.m. today, with that advisory continuing into Monday morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 351 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS INTO MONDAY MORNING... .A Wind Chill Warning is in effect for all of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin tonight through this morning. Wind chill values during this time are expected to range between 35 degrees below zero and 50 degrees below zero. A Wind Chill Warning continues through Monday morning along and west of a line from Long Prairie to Hutchinson to Albert Lea. Wind chill values during this time are expected to be cooler than 35 degrees below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for east-central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight through Monday morning, where wind chills could occasionally be cooler than 30 degrees below zero. MNZ045-052-053-060>063-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-141800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WC.Y.0007.210214T1700Z-210215T1600Z/ /O.CON.KMPX.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210214T1700Z/ Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Dakota- Goodhue-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa- Eau Claire- Including the cities of Mora, Cambridge, Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hastings, Red Wing, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire 351 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills as low as 45 below zero. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and east central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, until 11 AM CST this morning. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 11 AM this morning to 10 AM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Here are forecast details for northeastern Minnesota:

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Low temps late Sunday night and early Monday will reach the 20s below zero in most areas, with some 30s below zero in parts of northern Minnesota:

Monday highs stay below zero in most areas:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 2 below zero on Monday, followed by 7 above zero on Tuesday, 14 on Wednesday, and 18 Thursday. We could top out in the lower 20s on Friday.  Here’s a warm note: the metro area could hit highs in the upper 20s next Saturday, and around 30 degrees next Sunday.

Temps may be a bit above normal the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above normal temperatures in Minnesota and western Wisconsin from Feb. 21 through Feb. 27:

Winter storm hits the South

A winter storm will bring heavy snow or a wintry mix to much of Texas and Oklahoma today and tonight.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning:

Oklahoma City could see 10 inches of snow by Monday:

Here are projected snow totals in Texas:

Winter storm warnings extend from New Mexico through Texas and Oklahoma and northeastward to Ohio, due to a combination of snow and freezing rain:

There’s also a blizzard warning for the Albuquerque, New Mexico area this Sunday morning:

Here are the warning details in New Mexico:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 510 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WIDESPREAD SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...RECORD COLD...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY... ...RECORD COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TAPERING OFF... .A storm system interacting with an arctic airmass which has spread westward into the Rio Grande Valley will continue to produce accumulating snow over much of northern and central New Mexico today. Strong gap winds with gusts of 50 to 60 mph will also continue through the Albuquerque metro area this morning before tapering off later this afternoon. Blowing snow, low visibilities, record cold, dangerous wind chills, and freezing fog will result in hazardous travel conditions across northern and central New Mexico. Road closures are possible. Although snow and blowing snow will taper off this evening, record cold and dangerous wind chills will persist tonight. NMZ219-221-141800- /O.UPG.KABQ.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-210215T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KABQ.BZ.W.0001.210214T1210Z-210214T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KABQ.WS.W.0005.210214T1800Z-210215T0100Z/ Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- 510 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph. For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Another inch or two of snow with winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area, Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood. * WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until 11 AM MST this morning. For the Winter Storm Warning, from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for New Mexico can be obtained by calling 5 1 1, 1-800-432-4269, or visiting nmroads.com.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.