Weekend forecast: a lot of 70s, gentle breezes

I’ll get to the weekend forecast shortly, but I’ll start with the wildfire danger today in parts of Minnesota, plus a drought update.

Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to increase the wildfire danger today. The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for Thursday afternoon and evening in northwestern Minnesota and parts of west-central Minnesota:

Here are details of the red flag warning in portions of Minnesota:

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 326 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>030-020300- /O.CON.KFGF.FW.W.0002.210401T1800Z-210402T0300Z/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall- Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail- 326 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... * AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota...Fire Weather Zones 001...002... 003...004...005...007...008...013...014...015...016...022... 023... 027...028...029 and 030. * TIMING...Thursday early afternoon thru evening. * WINDS...South 15 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 40 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent. * TEMPERATURES...In the mid 40s to low 50s. * IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become difficult to control and suppress. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.

The red flag warning began at 10 a.m. today in Traverse County and Big Stone County of west-central Minnesota.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Drought update

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought (shaded beige) over much of the northern third of Minnesota plus parts of west-central and southwestern Minnesota:

Portions of Kittson County and Marshall County in far northwestern Minnesota and much of Rock County in far southwestern Minnesota are in severe drought right now. The yellow-shaded areas on the map are abnormally dry, but not yet in drought.

The table to the right of the map shows that there weren’t any abnormally dry or drought areas in Minnesota at this time last year.

Weekend temps and winds

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 51 degrees on April 3. Many spots in the metro area are expected to reach the lower 70s Saturday afternoon. We’ll share highs in the 70s with roughly the southern half of Minnesota, with 60s to the north:

Saturday winds gusts will be fairly light, mainly in the 7-12 mph range :

Plotted gusts are in knots, with 9 knots equal to about 10 mph. Wind gusts will be a bit higher in northeastern Minnesota and the far northwest.

Back to temperatures, Sunday highs will be in the 70s in many areas, with mostly 60s in the northern third of Minnesota:

There will be some 50s in northeastern Minnesota, and a few 40s up along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Sunday will be a bit breezier than Saturday.

Dry weekend

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see a dry weekend. There could be some scattered showers near the Canadian border Sunday afternoon. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Sunday afternoon:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.