Spotty rainfall, but drought deepens in Minnesota

Thursday’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor shows what many of us have expected. This week’s U.S. map (above) shows the extensive western drought zone expanding across the northern tier of states.

In the Midwest, drought conditions are growing in both aerial coverage and severity. Most of the northern half of the Midwest region is now in drought.

And the high Plains region that includes the Dakotas shows even more drought coverage and severity. North Dakota is 100 percent in drought, and 64 percent of the state is in extreme to exceptional drought — the two most severe categories.

Here is a list of northern states and drought percentages.

• North Dakota: 100 percent

• South Dakota: 87 percent

• Iowa: 76 percent

• Michigan: 70 percent

• Minnesota: 55 percent

• Wisconsin 55 percent

Here’s this week’s Midwest summary from the U.S. Drought Monitor:

Midwest Drought Summary

Generally warm and dry conditions prevailed in the northern half of the region over the past week, leading to widespread worsening of drought and dryness. Continued warm and dry weather worsened precipitation deficits in the western and northern parts of Chicagoland, as well as in adjacent southeast Wisconsin, and extreme drought developed in those areas. In this general region, many crops are struggling due to the ongoing severe and extreme drought. Moderate drought also developed across central Wisconsin as short-term precipitation deficits mounted. Moderate drought coverage also grew in western regions of Minnesota. Drought coverage also expanded across a large portion of southern Iowa. Recent dry weather and lowering streamflow led to the development of moderate drought in St Louis County, Missouri. In northern portions of Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper Peninsula, rain this week kept encroachment of drought or abnormal dryness at bay. Conditions were also better in the Ohio River Valley, where some small areas of abnormal dryness lessened their aerial grip after rain this past week.

In Minnesota, moderate drought has expanded into the southern Twin Cities and now covers most of southern and western Minnesota. Severe drought runs along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota.

Outlook: Some rain Sunday

Scattered light showers are moving east in Minnesota through Thursday evening. Sunday brings a better chance for more widespread rainfall. But rainfall totals through Monday still favor less than an inch across most of Minnesota. The best chance for multi-inch rainfall totals favors southeast Minnesota.

Here’s the European model rainfall output through Monday:

Without widespread substantial rain it’s likely the drought will deepen next week across the Upper Midwest. There are some signs of a possible wetter pattern in the last days of June.

Stay tuned.