A toasty Fourth of July; evening thunderstorm chances highest in northern Minnesota

This Fourth of July will feature some very warm temps.

Highs in the 90s are forecast for most of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin this Sunday. There’ll be few 80s up along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and a few spots in southwestern and west-central Minnesota could touch 100. Dew points will be in the sticky 60s, but it’ll be breezy.

There’s a heat advisory from noon to 8 p.m. this Sunday for four counties in southwestern Minnesota: Lincoln, Lyon, Pipestone and Rock County. Heat index values could reach 105 degrees in parts of those four counties.

Sunday thunderstorm chances

There are some very scattered showers in parts of northern Minnesota this Sunday morning. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in northern Minnesota later this afternoon and this evening, with the t-storms spreading into northwestern Wisconsin by late evening. A few spotty showers and t-storms are also possible elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin this Sunday evening, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to be highest in northern Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening in the portions of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin that are shaded yellow in the following image:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible in the marginal risk area, which is shaded dark-green. The Storm Prediction Center will update the Sunday severe weather outlook several times in the next 10 hours.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will retreat to the 80s in roughly the northern third of Minnesota, with 90s elsewhere:

Dew points will slowly drop as we go through Monday, with dew points in the 50s spreading southward:

Back to high temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower 80s on Tuesday, followed by upper 70s Wednesday, lower 80s Thursday and mid 80s on Friday.

Tuesday soaker?

Some areas could get meaningful rain on Tuesday, with the highest totals in central and northern Minnesota. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential Tuesday rain pattern:

We could use the rain. The weekly drought update from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought (shaded beige) in much of Minnesota, with areas of severe drought (shaded orange) in parts of far southern Minnesota and a portion of northwestern Minnesota:

The areas that are shaded yellow are abnormally dry, but not yet in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The table to the right of the map shows that 82.14 percent of Minnesota is in drought right now, with abnormally dry conditions elsewhere in Minnesota. One year ago, just 19.21 percent of Minnesota was experiencing drought conditions.

Elsa update

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Elsa, which is affecting Jamaica and portions of Cuba today and tonight. Elsa will affect portions of Florida on Monday and Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center has posted this forecast track for Elsa, along with the cone of uncertainty for that track:

Here’s the Sunday morning update on Elsa:

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Jamaica * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

The National Hurricane Center posts updated tropical advisories every three hours or so.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.