Numerous severe storms expected to hit Minnesota Wednesday

Minnesota sees another hazy day Tuesday, with a few storms possible. A much heavier rain targets southern Minnesota on Wednesday, along with a significant chance for severe weather.

Tuesday’s forecast

The state started Tuesday with seasonable lows for mid-July, in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon highs ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south will be a couple degrees above average. 

There is a trough of lower pressure moving across the state that passed through northwestern and part of central Minnesota as of 9 a.m., switching winds from a southerly flow ahead of the trough to northerly behind it. 

While much of Minnesota sees some haze Tuesday from fires in the western U.S. and Canada, the Arrowhead especially can expect more of the haze and possibly some air quality issues by the afternoon as the winds shift and draw in more smoke from the Ontario fires.

The disturbance does not have much moisture with it and had only produced a couple of very sparse showers in northern Minnesota as of Tuesday morning. However, as the trough travels south during afternoon heating, a few more thunderstorms are likely to develop and could become strong for isolated storms with damaging wind or hail.  

For the Twin Cities, the most likely timing of any storms would be late afternoon or early evening. 

A stormy Wednesday

Overnight Tuesday, a much more potent storm complex brings a couple areas of low pressure to southern Minnesota and south of the state, pushing in spotty showers and storms. 

That wet weather will affect the southern half of the state by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, even northern Minnesota could see some isolated activity, although the brunt of the storm stays south. 

The instability with this system is high enough that isolated severe weather is possible anywhere in southern Minnesota, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, with damaging winds the highest risk. 

That risk increases heading southeast, with southeastern Minnesota under an “enhanced” risk area, meaning numerous severe storms are likely.

Storms with damaging winds are still the most likely, along with large hail, but it is also probable that a few thunderstorms will produce tornadoes. 

Those thunderstorms will also produce heavy downpours at times, and much of southern Minnesota can expect around an inch of rain, with localized higher amounts.

Isolated flash flooding is possible during periods of heavy rain. With most of the storms expected south, rain totals quickly taper off heading north, and northern Minnesota will miss most of the accumulating rainfall.

The widespread clouds and rain keep temperatures slightly cooler, with much of Minnesota seeing highs near 80 Wednesday.

Extended forecast

By Thursday, the storm clears and more sunshine returns across the state, although eastern Minnesota may see a few lingering showers during the day.

Highs for most of the state will be near 80. 

Temperatures then nudge warmer toward the weekend, with much of Minnesota at least in the mid-80s, and a few 90s possible north and west.

Dry skies and sunshine are likely to prevail through the weekend.

Next week is also currently expected to stay predominantly dry and hotter than average.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.