Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Rain and thunder: Highest severe risk across southern Minnesota

Slight severe risk remains for Twin Cities. Enhanced risk for southern Minnesota.

Severe weather risk areas Wednesday
Severe weather risk areas Wednesday
NOAA via Iowa Emergency Management

The first wave of storms this morning drove through southern Minnesota with a severe thunderstorm watch and few warnings along and north of the I-90 corridor. Now we watch as additional waves of rain and thunder cross southern Minnesota into Wednesday evening.

Severe risk

The highest (enhanced) risk for severe storms has shifted southward through Wednesday evening. The southeast half of the Twin Cities is still included in the slight risk zone from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center.

The graphic at the top of this post is the updated risk area from the midday update.

Heavy rain threat

The heaviest rainfall threat zone also favors southern Minnesota this afternoon. The latest run of the European model still suggests some 1 to 2 inches rainfall swaths from the Twin Cities southward.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Forecast: Summer returns through the weekend

The forecast through the upcoming weekend features classic summer weather for Minnesota. Looks for plenty of sunshine Thursday through Sunday. Highs will climb through the 80s through the upcoming weekend. Next week looks hot, with highs climbing through the 90s.

Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Major heat wave next week?

A prolonged, intense heat wave looks increasingly likely next week across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Forecast models build a heat dome centered on North Dakota. Highs well over 100 degrees could persist for several days across the Dakotas and western Minnesota.

NOAA GFS temperature output for 7 pm Thursday July 22
NOAA GFS temperature output for 7 pm Wednesday July 21
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Highs should push into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees late next week in the Twin Cities.

NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 1 pm Friday July 23
NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 1 pm Friday July 23
NOAA via tropical tidbits

This could greatly elevate fire danger to extreme levels across northern Minnesota next week.

Stay tuned.