Steamy next week; the only question is how hot?

A prolonged and potentially extreme heat wave is setting up for the Upper Midwest and High Plains next week. The only real questions appear to be about the magnitude of next week’s heat, and the precise geographical distribution of 100-degree temperatures.

Heat dome builds next week

The position of upper-level waves and ridges drive larger-scale weather patterns across North America. Next week’s heat dome builds across the northern High Plains and southern Canada. Minnesota will ride the eastern edge of the heat dome for most of next week.

Triple-digit temperatures look likely over the Dakotas for most of next week. Forecast models vary on how far east the core of the heat will push into Minnesota. The European model is more conservative and projects highs mostly in the lower 90s next week as far east as the Twin Cities.

The American GFS model and the Canadian model push 100-degree heat into central Minnesota near on into the Twin Cities by next Thursday afternoon.

Long-duration hot spell

Another factor to consider is the duration of the hot spell ahead. Most forecast models suggest the heat will persist through the remainder of July across our region.

NOAA’s week 3 to 4 outlook also suggests hotter than average weather into early August.

The outlooks also favor drier than average weather through July, and potentially into early August.

So the Steamy Summer of ‘21 appears ready to persist for the next few weeks. If you like the heat, you’re going to love the forecast.

Stay tuned.