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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Greenwood Fire weather forecast: Southerly winds, dry weather until Friday night

Winds will push fires northward this week

Smoke rises from a fast-moving wildfire
Smoke rises from a fast-moving wildfire near Greenwood Lake, about 30 miles north of Two Harbors, Minn., on Sunday.
Superior National Forest

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We’re watching fire weather conditions for the fire zone in northeast Minnesota this week.

The Greenwood Fire is now growing from 2,000 acres. Here’s Tuesday’s update from the US Forest Service Facebook page:

Greenwood Fire info
Greenwood Fire info
U.S. Forest Service

Three other smaller wildfires are also burning in northeast Minnesota.

Fire weather forecast

The overall meteorological pattern favors persistent southerly wind flow through Friday. South winds between 10 and 20 mph will be common in northeast Minnesota this week. Locally higher gusts can occur in fire zones as wildfires can actually change the local atmosphere and modify local weather conditions.

One weather factor helping firefighters will be relatively high dew points this week. Dew points in the 60s in the fire zone will keep humidity levels relatively high.

NOAA’s NAM model output favors dew points in the 60s and southerly winds into Friday. Here’s the loop between 7 p.m. Tuesday and 1 p.m. Wednesday.

NOAA NAM model winds and dew points
NOAA NAM model winds and dew points from 7 p.m. Tuesday to 1 p.m. Wednesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and low 90s in the fire zone this week.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Overnight low temperatures will favor the lower 60s this week.

Forecast minimum temps Wednesday
Forecast minimum temps Wednesday
NOAA

Rain chance late this week

Little if any rain is forecast in the fire zones in northeast Minnesota through Thursday. A cold front approaching Friday will bring a chance of scattered rain and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

Canadian model Friday and Saturday
Canadian model Friday and Saturday
Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

A second system may bring another chance for rain by Monday. The European model favors multi-inch rainfall for parts of Minnesota by Monday night. But Tuesday’s moels runs favor less than an inch in the fire zones. That could change, but here’s the latest European model run.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output through Monday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Weather conditions favor continued fire growth this week. But if the humidity stays high and winds stay manageable, fire crews may be able to make some containment progress.

Stay tuned.