Rain, thunder rolling eastward Thursday; heavier rain likely after midnight
Wind damage in western Minnesota. Soaking rains for central and southern Minnesota.
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Another welcome rainfall is pouring down from the sky over Minnesota Thursday.
The storm complex moved out of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota Thursday morning. There are reports of some tree damage in Appleton in western Minnesota. Winds gusted to 78 mph just west of Benson in Swift County at 11:36 a.m.
Here are some additional storm reports from Thursday morning.
2 W Benson [Swift Co, MN] AWOS reports TSTM WND GST of M78 MPH at 11:36 AM CDT -- AWOS STATION KBBB BENSON AP.
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Hanley Falls [Yellow Medicine Co, MN] MESONET reports TSTM WND GST of M53 MPH at 11:35 AM CDT -- MESONET STATION MN033 HANLEY FALLS MN-23 MILE POST 94.
Appleton [Swift Co, MN] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports TSTM WND DMG at 11:10 AM CDT -- TREE BRANCH DOWN OVER POWER LINE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
2 S Madison [Lac Qui Parle Co, MN] AWOS reports TSTM WND GST of M45 MPH at 11:15 AM CDT -- AWOS STATION KDXX MADISON AP.
2 NNE Canby [Yellow Medicine Co, MN] AWOS reports TSTM WND GST of M56 MPH at 10:55 AM CDT -- AWOS STATION KCNB CANBY AP.
5 SSW Marietta [Lac Qui Parle Co, MN] MESONET reports TSTM WND GST of M57 MPH at 10:50 AM CDT -- MESONET STATION MN059 MARIETTA 5SSW.
Multiple rain waves
It looks like two main rain waves will cross southern Minnesota through Friday morning. The first wave may lose some steam as it approaches the Twin Cities Thursday afternoon, but could stay stronger across southern Minnesota.
A break in rainfall appears likely Thursday evening, with a second, heavier wave of rain and thunder rolling east across southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities area after midnight into early Friday morning.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model captures the notion of the two separate rain waves:
Severe risk
The Twin Cities National Weather Service has expanded the severe thunderstorm watch a bit east. It includes counties just west of the Twin Cities until 3 p.m. Thursday.
The most unstable air and the highest severe risk lies across southern Minnesota south of the Twin Cities.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center’s midday update paints a slight risk zone for southern Minnesota, with just a marginal risk for the Twin Cities area.
Soaking rains
It still looks like much of southern Minnesota will pick up 2 or more inches of rainfall by late Friday. Thursday’s late morning forecast model runs still crank out multi-inch rainfall across much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area.
A second rain wave arrives late Saturday across most of Minnesota. Northeastern Minnesota will likely miss most of the rain through Friday, but the fire zones could get an inch or more of rain this weekend.
Here’s another look at the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model rainfall output through Sunday.
Stay tuned.