Tornado watch until 4 p.m. Saturday includes Twin Cities metro

An upper-level disturbance is moving toward the upper Midwest. A cold front will also push into Minnesota today, with plenty of moist air out ahead of it. That’s the recipe for thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms moved into parts of west-central Minnesota Saturday morning, and a severe thunderstorm watch continues in that area and eastward until noon Saturday:

Thunderstorm coverage may expand rapidly today.

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10:40 a.m. Update

A tornado watch includes the Twin Cities metro area and portions of central and northern Minnesota and northwestern and west-central Wisconsin until 4 p.m. this Saturday:

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The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows an enhanced risk of severe weather Saturday and Saturday night for a wide swath of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, plus portions of west-central and northern Wisconsin:

Enhanced risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are possible:

Damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail appear to be the main severe weather threats Saturday and Saturday night, with a few tornados also possible. Some areas could also see heavy rain. Check forecast updates.

Stay weather-aware Saturday and Saturday night. Make sure that you have a way to get severe weather warnings today and tonight. MPR, NOAA weather radio, or a weather app are among your options for forecasts, watches and warnings.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Air quality alert northeastern Minnesota until Sunday morning

Due to smoke from wildfires, an air quality alert continues Saturday and until 9 a.m. Sunday in northeastern Minnesota and  parts of north-central Minnesota:

Here are details of the air quality alert:

MNZ010-011-012-018-019-291400- Central St. Louis-Koochiching-North Itasca-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake- Including the tribal nations of Leech Lake and Red Lake Including the cities of Ely, Hibbing, and International Falls 1251 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air Quality Alert for fine particle pollution. The Air Quality Index (AQI) is expected to reach the Red or Unhealthy category. * WHERE...North central and northeast Minnesota. * WHEN...Through 9 AM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Some members of the general public may experience health effects. Sensitive groups, such as people with lung disease (including asthma), heart disease, and children and older adults, may experience health effects. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The Greenwood fire continues to burn in the Superior National Forest in northeast Minnesota. The fire is located near Greenwood Lake, or approximately 15 miles southwest of Isabella. The fire is estimated to be 26,000 acres with no containment. While significant fire growth is not expected on Friday and Saturday, the fire will continue producing smoke within the existing fire perimeter. Also, additional smoke will be produced during fire suppression activities. In addition to the Greenwood fire, fires just across the border in the Canadian Quetico Provincial Park continue to burn with no containment and will also contribute to smoke concentrations. East to southeast winds throughout Friday and Saturday are expected to carry the smoke to the west and northwest of the fires. Precipitation arriving Friday and Saturday may temporarily reduce the fine particle concentration to below alert level in most areas. Fine particle levels may reach the Red AQI category, a level that is considered unhealthy for everyone. Red AQI conditions may occur Friday and Saturday in areas downwind and in closer proximity to the fire. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Sensitive groups, such as people with lung disease (including asthma), heart disease, and children and older adults, should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion. The general public should limit prolonged or heavy exertion. For information on current air quality conditions in your area and to sign up for daily air quality forecasts and alert notifications by email, text message, phone, or the Minnesota Air mobile app, visit https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air/current-air-quality. You can find additional information about health and air quality at https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air/why-you-should-care-air-quality-and- health.

Temperature trends

Saturday highs reach the 80s in roughly the southern half of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin. Northern Minnesota will top out in the 70s. Dew points will be in the steamy 70s across much of southern Minnesota Saturday afternoon.

Sunday highs will be in the 70s in most locations:

Sunday afternoon dew points will be in the comfortable 50s northwest, with sticky 60s in the southeast:

Back to forecast highs, Twin Cities metro area high temps are projected to reach the upper 70s Monday, then around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. Metro highs return to the upper 70s for Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane Ida

Hurricane Ida will continue to strengthen today and tonight, according to the National Hurricane Center:

Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Here’s the forecast track of Ida:

The is the Saturday morning Ida update:

BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 86.1W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward along the northern Gulf coast to the Alabama/Florida border. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Mississippi from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Louisiana west of Intracoastal City has also been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch from Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mobile Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 86.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba today as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across western Cuba through today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The National Hurricane Center issues tropical updates every three hours.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.