Severe risk: Monday storms most likely in Twin Cities 6 p.m to 10 p.m.

Our next severe weather risk unfolds across southern Minnesota Monday night when a low-pressure wave moves into southern Minnesota. Conditions are favorable for thunderstorms, and a few storms could reach severe limits.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across southern Minnesota, including the far southern Twin Cities area. Severe thunderstorm criteria include winds of at least 58 mph and hail 1 inch or greater in diameter.

The rest of the Twin Cities region, St. Cloud, Willmar, and Redwood Falls are in a marginal risk zone:

Twin Cities storms

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model is typical of short-range forecast models that show thunderstorms in southwestern Minnesota late Monday afternoon into the early evening. The most likely window for storms in the greater Twin Cities area is between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m.

Here’s another look at expected storm timing and coverage from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office.

The most likely storm threats Monday night are damaging winds and large hail. There is a low but nonzero risk of a tornado.

Rainfall totals should fall between one-half inch and 1 inch across most of southern Minnesota.

Remember to check the MPR News severe weather live blog for up-to-the-minute watch and warning information and storm reports.