Tracking rainfall chances through Friday

Our next rainmaker moves into Minnesota Thursday and Friday.

A weak frontal system will generate widely scattered occasional rain showers and a few possible thundershowers as it drifts slowly across Minnesota. Most of the hours Thursday and Friday will be dry in most areas, but a couple of hours of showers look likely each day. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center does not paint any severe weather risk areas for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest Thursday or Friday.

Rainfall coverage and timing

NOAA’s HRRR model captures the notion of scattered rain in southwest Minnesota Thursday morning spreading north and east. Look for a gradual increase in rainfall coverage Thursday, with showers and a possible thunderstorm more likely in the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota in the afternoon and evening hours.

This spotty rainfall pattern likely continues through Friday. The latest indications are the system should mostly move east of Minnesota by Saturday with only a few spotty lingering showers possible. Sunday looks like the sunnier day of the weekend.

Spotty rainfall totals

Rainfall totals with this system look highly localized once again. Northwest Minnesota is likely to see under 0.25 inches. Most of Minnesota likely falls in the 0.5 to 1-inch range by Saturday. There could be some +1 inch totals under the heavier, more persistent rain cells.

Here’s the European model rainfall output through Saturday.

There should be many dry hours for outdoor activities Thursday and Friday. But expect at least a couple of hours of showers and maybe a little thunder each day.