Severe weather risk for western Minnesota Saturday

Scattered rain is in the forecast for Minnesota this weekend.

But the short-range forecast models are grabbing hold of a possible line of stronger thunderstorms developing in western Minnesota Saturday night and moving across much of Minnesota.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model and others develop storm clusters in the eastern Dakotas late Saturday afternoon and push a possible squall-line across Minnesota Saturday evening into the overnight hours.

Current trends suggest the timing of the storms would favor Saturday evening in western Minnesota and after midnight along northwest Minnesota through Brainerd and St. Cloud through the Twin Cities arc. Storms become more likely in northeast Minnesota Sunday morning.

Slight severe risk

The highest chance for severe weather favors west-central Minnesota from the Fargo-Moorhead area through Wheaton and Alexandria. Here’s a look at the risk zone Saturday for the Red River Valley and much of northwest Minnesota:

A marginal risk runs to just west of the greater Twin Cities area Saturday night. Here’s a closer look at the risk zone for central and southern Minnesota:

Rainfall totals

It still looks like the heaviest soaking rains will favor northern Minnesota, but the overall rainfall zone may extend south toward the Twin Cities. Here’s the rainfall output from the Twin Cities NWS into Sunday morning:

Keep an eye out for possible severe weather watches and warnings — especially Saturday night in the western half of Minnesota.