A pleasant Saturday, with northern lights potential tonight

Much of Minnesota will have a pleasant Saturday, with highs in the 50s. There could even be a few lower 60s in southwestern Minnesota.

Parts of northwestern and west-central Minnesota will see wind gusts of 20-30 mph Saturday afternoon and evening, with much lighter winds elsewhere. A stray rain shower is also possible in northwestern Minnesota and parts of north-central Minnesota.

Northern lights

Energy from a solar storm could give us a nice display of northern lights Saturday night:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a geomagnetic storm watch:

Here are details, from NOAA:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR 30-31 OCT.

published: Friday, October 29, 2021 17:43 UTC

A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for 30 – 31 October, 2021, following a significant solar flare and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the sun that occurred around 11:35 a.m. EDT on Oct. 28. Analysis indicated the CME departed the Sun at a speed of 973 km/s and is forecast to arrive at Earth on 30 October, with effects likely continuing into 31 October.

When the CME approaches Earth, NOAA’s DSCOVR satellite will be among the first spacecraft to detect the real time solar wind changes and SWPC forecasters will issue any appropriate warnings.

Impacts to our technology from a G3 storm are generally nominal. However, a G3 storm has the potential to drive the aurora further away from its normal polar residence and if other factors come together, the aurora might be seen over the far Northeast, to the upper Midwest, and over the state of Washington.

For additional information about space weather, geomagnetic storms, aurora and viewing tips, and CMEs – click the terms. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the official source for space weather forecasts, watches, warnings and alerts. Visit www.spaceweather.gov for updates. Learn about Solar Cycle 25.

Cloud cover may obscure our viewing in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday evening. Here’s NOAA’s NAM forecast model of cloud cover from 6 p.m. Saturday to 6 a.m. Sunday:

Western Minnesota will have the most hours of potential viewing, but parts of eastern Minnesota could have a window of opportunity early in the evening and also later in the overnight hours. We’ll update the cloud forecast later today.

Chilly Halloween

Highs will be in the 40s in most areas on Sunday:

Many areas will see wind gusts of 20-27 mph on Sunday:

Plotted wind forecasts are in knots, with 20 knots equal to 23 mph. Far northern Minnesota could see a passing rain or snow shower on Sunday.

Trick or treaters will have 7 p.m. Sunday temps in the 30s in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin with temps close to 40 in the metro area and parts of southeastern Minnesota:

Temps will continue to fall as we go through Sunday evening.

Cool temps are on tap this coming week. Twin Cities highs will be in the lower 40s Monday, then around 40 Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by lower 40s Thursday and mid 40s on Friday.

Fall color update

The latest fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows fall colors past peak in the dark-red shaded areas of Minnesota:

The percentage of changeover to fall colors is between 75 percent and 100 percent in the medium-red shaded areas of southeastern Minnesota.

Keep in mind that all deciduous trees are included in the fall color report, not just maples.

I’m still seeing small pockets of excellent fall color in parts of the Twin Cities:

Wisconsin fall color info can be found here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.