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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Another 'maybe' chance for northern lights Wednesday night

Solar storm sends another burst earthward

Coronal Mass Ejection
Coronal Mass Ejection.
NASA

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It’s another maybe forecast for possible northern lights favoring northern Minnesota overnight.

Solar storms are sending multiple waves of energy toward the earth.

CME forecast
CME forecast.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

These Coronal Mass Ejections CME are hitting earth’s magnetosphere according to spaceweater.com.

A cannibal CME, described below, has just hit Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft show a stairstep structure indicative of two or more CMEs pressed together. G1- to G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead.

The CME heading for Earth is a cannibal. SOHO coronagraphs caught the storm cloud leaving the sun on Nov. 2nd following a slow-motion solar flare (M1.7) in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2891:

The G1 to G2 class storms show a predicted Kp-index of 5 on a scale of 0 to 9. That’s typically associated with an auroral oval that runs about as far southward as northern Minnesota. It usually takes a Kp of 7 to create auroras that are visible in southern Minnesota and Iowa.

KP Index
KP Index and aurora zones.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

So the best chance for seeing any northern lights overnight into Thursday morning favors northern Minnesota.

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a geomagnetic storm watch.

**(UPDATE):The G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for 04 Nov has been upgraded to a G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch. The G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for 03 November remains in effect.**

Several CMEs (coronal mass ejections) erupted from the Sun on 01 - 02 Nov and analysis and model consensus indicate likely Earth-directed components to a few of them. CMEs took place from the southwest area of the Sun to include one associated with a C4 flare from NOAA/SWPC Region 2887 at 01/2133 UTC (02/1:33am EDT). This was followed by a full halo CME related to an M1 flare (R1-Minor Radio Blackout) from Region 2891 at 02/0301 UTC (02/7:01am EDT) near center disk. Confidence in a measure of Earth-directed components to these CMEs is moderate; while there is less confidence in timing and intensity. Please continue to visit https://swpc.noaa.gov for the latest information and forecasts.

Skies will be clear across most of Minnesota overnight. So if northern lights happen, they could be visible away from city lights low on the northern horizon.