Two wintry systems bring snow through Sunday
Snow looks heaviest in central and northern Minnesota. Twin Cities may also see snowflakes.
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We’re watching two wintry weather systems on the forecast maps this week in the Weather Lab.
The first one moves into Minnesota Wednesday through Friday. This system will bring mostly rain to central and southern Minnesota, with the best chances for accumulating snow across northern Minnesota.
NOAA’s GFS model lays out the theme of a strong low-pressure system heading for Minnesota’s Arrowhead by Thursday. This model and others suggest it’s warm enough for mostly rain on the front side of the system for central and southern Minnesota, but cold enough for snow in the north.
Note how colder air wraps snow showers around the system’s backside across most of Minnesota by Friday.
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Early snowfall estimates
Our first inbound weather system is still off the California coast as of Monday. It will take some time to move inland over the more dense sample grid. That should give us a better handle on the eventual storm track and temperature profile within the system.
The early read on snowfall output suggests the heaviest accumulating snow across northern Minnesota, with lesser totals in western Minnesota and a possible dusting in the Twin Cities by Thursday night and Friday.
Here’s the European model snowfall output through Saturday morning. Use this as a rough guide to possible coverage and intensity of snow, but not as a precise forecast.
Second system Sunday?
Several forecast models suggest a possible clipper system moving into Minnesota Sunday.
NOAA’s latest GFS run sweeps the system through central Minnesota. This track would produce more accumulating snow in central and northern Minnesota, with a rain-to-snow scenario for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.
If the system comes further south, that would increase potential snow for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.
With colder air in place later this week, it looks like two weather systems will likely deliver significant snow to much of Minnesota by next Monday. The best actionable forecast information at this time is to plan for snow in northern Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday, and lighter snow across most of Minnesota Thursday night and Friday. The second system looks colder and could bring significant snow to central, and possibly southern Minnesota Sunday.
Stay tuned as we watch the forecast models to see what track changes take place this week.