Winter storm ramps up Sunday evening; snow lingers into Monday a.m. in some areas

A winter storm is heading toward us.

Snow (or a wintry mix of snow, rain, light freezing rain/freezing drizzle and sleet) may begin in southwestern and south-central Minnesota Sunday afternoon. Snow (and possibly a wintry mix) spreads across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night. Snow will linger into Monday in far northern Minnesota and parts of northern Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 3 p.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Monday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows a similar overall pattern:

Snow amounts

The highest snow totals are expected over northern Minnesota, where many locations will see 6 or more inches of fresh snow. Here are NWS snow forecasts:

Some areas near Lake Superior could tally over one foot of snow overnight and Monday:

Here’s the NWS snow forecast for central and southern Minnesota, plus parts of Wisconsin:

The Twin Cities metro could see between 2 and 4 inches of snow Sunday evening and overnight, with the highest amounts in the north metro. A wintry mix is also possible at times.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Warnings and advisories

Winter storm warnings cover northern Minnesota and portions of central Minnesota Sunday evening through much of Monday.

The winter storm warnings begin at 3 p.m. this Sunday afternoon in a section of northwestern Minnesota, including Moorhead, Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls.

Here are details of the winter storm warnings in the Duluth area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 646 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 MNZ019-037-038-270100- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0008.211227T0000Z-211228T0000Z/ Central St. Louis-Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine- Including the cities of Hibbing, Duluth, Pine City, and Hinckley 646 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Pine, Central St. Louis and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Bois Forte Band, Lake Vermilion area, the Fond du Lac Band and the Mille Lacs Band, Lena Lake and, Hinckley areas. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area are in a winter weather advisory this evening and overnight. The advisory starts at 6 p.m. in the Twin Cities metro area and runs to 6 a.m. Monday.

The winter weather advisory begins at 3 p.m. this afternoon in southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and continues through the overnight hours.

The yellow outlines on the map are areas for which the NWS Twin Cities office issues warnings and advisories. The three areas will have different snow amounts from the storm, with lowest amounts to the south. Check forecast updates.

Here are details of the winter weather advisory, with Twin Cities metro info toward the end of the quote:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 324 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 ...HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING... .A potent winter system is expected to move across Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon into Monday morning with a variety of different winter impacts. The heaviest snow is expected in parts of central Minnesota with 5 to 7 inches expected. The heaviest snow rates are expected tonight. Wind gusts could lead to some patchy blowing snow. Farther south snow is expected to be more in the 2 to 5 inch range. The final impact will be mixed precipitation across southern Minnesota. This mix is most likely later in the event tonight into Monday morning. All together this could lead to a difficult day of travel for those heading home after the holiday. MNZ050-051-059>063-068>070-WIZ023>028-261730- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0016.211227T0000Z-211227T1200Z/ Benton-Sherburne-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver- Scott-Dakota-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire- Including the cities of Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire 324 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and central and east central Minnesota. * WHEN...From Sunday evening to Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs are expected to range from teens in far northern Minnesota to lower 30s in the far southeast. The Twin Cities metro area will top out in the 20s.

Falling temps are on tap for Monday. The metro area may see an early morning high of 31, with temps falling through the 20s during the day and into the teens by Monday evening. Gusty winds will make it feel colder than the temperature.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 20s Tuesday, then very cold highs in the single digits are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. We rebound slightly to the mid teens on Friday.

Highs on Wednesday may be below zero in northwestern Minnesota:

Your warmest coat, hat and gloves will be needed on Wednesday!

Weather nugget

This is from the NWS and the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

On this date in 1990: Much of central Minnesota sets record low temperatures near 30 degrees below zero, while others had lows in the teens below zero. Cambridge had the coldest temperature with 31 below. Mora was close behind, with a low of 30 below. Other notably cold lows were at St. Cloud, with 29 below, and Melrose and Menomonie, WI with 27 below.

I checked, MSP airport reported a low of 22 below on Dec. 26, 1990.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.