Arctic cold through this weekend; updated wind chill warnings/advisories

Happy New Year!

Shortly after 7 a.m. this New Year’s Day, the temperature at Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport was 10 below zero. The wind chill temp at the time was 25 below zero.

Several spots in northern Minnesota reported 7 a.m. temps in the 30s below zero, including -35 at Fosston and Bigfork and -32 in Hibbing.

Some of the lowest wind chill temps at 7 a.m. were -56 in Fosston, -51 in Crookston and -50 in Thief River Falls.

Grand Forks, North Dakota set record lows for Dec. 31 and Jan. 1:

Bundle up this weekend, and also keep your pets comfortable:

Wind chill advisories and warnings

Wind chill warnings continue today through 10 a.m. Sunday in northwestern Minnesota:

Here are details of the warnings:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 352 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021600- /O.EXT.KFGF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220102T1600Z/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 352 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 ...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 to 55 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until 10 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. If outside, make sure you wear appropriate winter clothing.

Wind chill warnings continue until noon today in northeastern Minnesota, then a wind chill advisory will be in effect this Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning:

Here are details of the warnings and advisories:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 321 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036-012130- /O.EXB.KDLH.WC.Y.0016.220101T1800Z-220102T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDLH.WC.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220101T1800Z/ Koochiching-North Itasca-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass- Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin- Including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Walker, Grand Rapids, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, and Aitkin 321 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero. * WHERE...Koochiching, North Itasca, North Cass, South Itasca, South Cass, Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin and South Aitkin Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Mille Lacs Band, East Lake and, Big Sandy Lake areas and the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek and, Nett Lake areas. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, until noon CST today. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from noon today to noon CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Wind chill advisories continue this Saturday morning in east-central and southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin, with wind chill warnings to the west:

Notice that wind chill advisories return in many areas Saturday evening and continue into Sunday morning.

Here are details of the metro area and western Wisconsin advisories:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 346 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 MNZ053-060>063-069-070-WIZ014-015-023>026-011800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WC.Y.0001.220102T0000Z-220102T1700Z/ /O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-220101T1800Z/ Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Scott-Dakota-Polk-Barron- St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin- Including the cities of Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Shakopee, Hastings, Osceola, Rice Lake, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, and Durand 346 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the first Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero. For the second Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and east central Minnesota. * WHEN...For the first Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST today. For the second Wind Chill Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Dress in layers and cover exposed skin when outside. Pack warm clothes and a charged cell phone when traveling.

A wind chill warning continues until noon today in Carver County of the southwest metro, then a wind chill advisory begins there Saturday evening.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Weekend highs and lows

Saturday highs will be below zero in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

A few spots in the Twin Cities metro area could approach zero briefly this afternoon. Our average Twin Cities high temp is 25 above zero on New Year’s Day. Our record coldest Twin Cities Jan. 1 high temp was minus 12 degrees, in 1974.

Sunday morning lows reach the 20s below zero in much of northern and central Minnesota:

Sunday forecast highs are slightly above zero in many areas, with teens in southwestern Minnesota:

Snow to the south and southeast

If you plan to travel to Iowa, southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois, be aware of a winter storm that’s heading toward that area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Saturday morning to noon on Sunday:

Here are winter storm warning details for Iowa and northern Illinois:

Winter storm warnings extend to Chicago:

Here is the Chicago area forecast:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 632 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 ILZ006-013-103>105-INZ001-002-012045- /O.CON.KLOT.WS.W.0005.220101T1800Z-220102T1200Z/ Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Lake IN- Porter- Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, Park Forest, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Chesterton 632 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...snow, falling heavily at times, with developing blowing snow and dangerous travel expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are expected. Northeast winds could gust up to 40 mph Saturday afternoon and evening, especially near the lake. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. Blowing snow after sunset Saturday could significantly reduce visibility, especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heavier snow rates appear most likely between 3 and 11 PM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com.

Here are details on forecast snow amounts plus warnings and advisories in southern Wisconsin:

You can click on any location here for the latest warnings and advisories.

Severe weather outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows an enhanced risk of severe weather this Saturday and Saturday night for much of Tennessee and northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama:

Temperature trends

Temps rebound nicely on Monday. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 20s Monday and around 30 on Tuesday, then retreat to the lower teens Wednesday, followed by single-digit highs Thursday and Friday.

Top 5 weather events of 2021

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has released the results of voting for the Top Five Weather Events of 2021 in Minnesota.

According to the Climatology Office:

Votes were cast from various weather enthusiasts including the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, State agencies and Facebook followers.

Here are the results of the voting, along with Climatology Office narratives:

#1 Historic Mid-December Severe Weather and Wind Event, December 15-16, 2021

This runaway #1 would have been a top-five candidate any time of year, but its out-of-season timing, as much as its potency, made it a "career" or "generational" event that had never before been recorded in Minnesota.

A powerful cyclone brought warm air, high dew point temperatures and summer-like severe weather into Minnesota. As of December 29, twenty tornadoes have been confirmed, the strongest of which, rated EF-2, struck the town of Hartland in Freeborn County. Damaging thunderstorm winds tracked across several states and qualified as a "derecho," and the same system brought additional damaging non-thunderstorm winds due to the pressure gradient. The warm air out ahead of the storm brought the fastest snow melt seen in December in the Twin Cities. The snow depth went from 12 inches on December 11 to zero on the 16th.

#2 The Drought of 2021

A major drought overtook Minnesota during 2021, as persistent moisture deficits combined with above-normal temperatures across the state. In some parts of the state, the drought was as serious as anything experienced in over 40 years, though for most of the state it was the worst drought in 10-30 years. By August 10th, a swath of northwestern through north-central Minnesota was designated in Exceptional Drought (D4), marking the first time any part of the state had made it to that level of drought during the 21-year history of the US Drought Monitor. Precipitation events beginning in August eased the drought situation, but at the close of 2021 the drought continued, especially in northern Minnesota.

#3 Summer of Smoke, 2021

The summer of 2021 was dry and hot, but Minnesotans will also remember it as unusually smoky. The Twin Cities International Airport reported smoke present on 25 different days between June and August, but by far the most noteworthy period was the long-duration "smoke outbreak" of July 28 - August 6. During this time, the smoke was so thick that it occasionally reduced surface visibility across Minnesota to a mile or less--values typically reserved for accumulating snowfalls or foggy episodes. The fine particulate matter from the smoke created imminent health hazards for vulnerable populations.

#4 February 2021 Cold Outbreak

The winter of 20-21 that was on its way to top ten for warmth, suddenly had a change of heart and plunged Minnesota (and a good chunk of the nation) into the icebox. The cold was noteworthy for how late in the season it was. The Twin Cities was at or below zero for 116 hours, the most since 1994 and had the 3rd most hours of zero or colder back to 1905.

#5 June 2021 Heat Wave

Minnesota has had many historical heat waves that were "worse" than this one on numerous counts. However, at many locations, this was the longest and most severe heat wave to occur so early in the season. It's not unusual have several days or more of 90-degree weather during the middle of July, but it is unusual to do so during (or before) the first half of June. The Twin Cities hit 90 degrees or higher nine days in a row, the third longest streak on record. It was this heat wave that really intensified the drought.

You can click on the links to the top five weather events for much more detail.

We’ll see what 2022 brings us. I hope that you have a great 2022!