Spring flood outlook: Above-average flood potential for Red River Valley

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released the first spring flood outlook for the Upper Midwest.

The overall flood potential picture looks fairly average for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, but abundant water content in the snow in northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota favors above average flood potential in the Red River Valley.

Snow cover

Snow cover across southern Minnesota is running from near to below average this week. But abundant snow cover up north means there are 2 to 4 inches of frozen water within the snow pack. That now frozen water will release liquid runoff into rivers feeding the Red River during the spring melt.

Across Minnesota, you can see that precipitation this winter has been average to below average across the south and east. But it’s been above average across most of northern and northwest Minnesota.

Twin Cities: Average flood risk

The overall flood risk looks average across the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota for rivers like the Minnesota and Mississippi.

Red River Valley: Higher flood potential

The extra water content in the snow cover across northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota means a higher flood potential in the Red River Valley watershed.

The real decider of eventual flood risk this spring will be weather patterns over the next six to eight weeks. A snowier pattern with heavy spring rainfall combined with a quick warmup will boost flood potential. A drier pattern with a slower spring warmup will reduce flood risk.

Right now NOAA’s outlook for March favors equal chances for above or below-average precipitation.

Stay tuned.