Sunday warmth; winter storm Monday and Tuesday

The temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 42 degrees at 11 a.m. Sunday. Temps could rise a bit more, then northwesterly winds will cause temps to retreat a bit as we go through the afternoon. Our average Twin Cities high is 30 degrees this time of year.

Much of southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin will have Sunday highs in the 40s, with 30s and 20s to the north. A few spots in far northwestern Minnesota will have Sunday highs in the teens and some spots in far southwestern Minnesota will probably reach the 50s.

Blizzard warning northwest

Blizzard warnings continue until 6 p.m. this Sunday in several northwestern Minnesota counties along the Red River and in portions of eastern North Dakota:

Here are details of the blizzard warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 933 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 MNZ001-004-007-NDZ007-008-016-026-027-054-210000- /O.CON.KFGF.BZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220221T0000Z/ West Polk-Kittson-West Marshall-Cavalier-Pembina-Eastern Walsh- Nelson-Grand Forks-Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 933 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions are ongoing. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph leading to whiteout conditions, especially in open country. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

The counties bordering the blizzard warning are in a winter weather advisory for the same time period. Some areas of northwestern Minnesota could see a few snow showers today, but the low visibilities are being caused mainly by strong winds redistributing existing snow cover.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog. Minnesota road conditions can be found here. 

Winter storm update

Snow is expected to spread into Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin Sunday night and Monday, then linger through much of Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 11 p.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. on Tuesday:

The steadiest snow on Monday has shifted a bit northward from the previous run of the NAM model. Many areas are expected to see 6 or more inches of snow from this two-day storm.

A winter storm watch covers many Minnesota and western Wisconsin counties from Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon. The watch begins at 9 p.m. Sunday in parts of west-central and central Minnesota, then it begins at 3 a.m. Monday from the northern part of the Twin Cities metro area into Wisconsin:

Snow forecast

The highest snow totals on Monday are expected in central Minnesota and portions of the north:

Tuesday snow totals are expected to be 4 inches or more in many areas:

Over two-day period, the far northern part of the Twin Cities metro area could see 7 to 10 inches of snow, with roughly 4 to 5 inches in the far south metro. Metro area snow accumulations are expected to be higher on Tuesday than on Monday.

Here’s the two-day snow forecast for northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

Here’s the two-day snow forecast for eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota:

The storm track may change, so check forecast updates.

Temperature trends

Wintry temps return on Monday, with highs ranging from single digits in northern Minnesota to 20s in the southeast :

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 20 on Monday, followed by mid teens Tuesday and around 10 on Friday. Highs in the mid teens return for Thursday and Friday.

Weather nugget:

On this date in 1981, the Twin Cities high temperature was 57 degrees. It was the fifth consecutive day with a Twin Cities high of 55 degrees or warmer. The warmest high temp in that 5-day stretch was 60 degrees, on Feb. 16.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.