Messy weekend storm on the way: Rain, snow, ice likely

Happy meteorological spring Minnesota! It’s March, so that must mean a big, sloppy mixed-weather kiss is on the way?

We’re a little more than 72 hours away from our next big weather system approaching Minnesota. Let’s take a look ahead at the latest forecast model solutions for what will be a messy mixed bag of precipitation across Minnesota this weekend.

Light snow Wednesday

First, a little taste of winter Wednesday morning. A band of light snow will develop overnight into early Wednesday across much of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model paints the light snow zone across Minnesota. The forecast image below is for 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Snowfall totals will be less than an inch in most areas. But with temperatures below freezing Wednesday morning, there is a chance for some slick roads.

Messy weekend storm system

A stronger storm system moves into Minnesota this weekend. I’m very confident about a mix of rain, ice, and snow for Minnesota from late Friday night into Sunday.

There are still big questions about storm track and the location of various precipitation types. The locations of the heaviest snow bands are still uncertain, but there are some distinct trends as of Tuesday.

Most forecast models — including NOAA’s Global Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model  — suggest a mix of snow, ice, and rain across southern Minnesota. That would put the heaviest snow zone across western and northern Minnesota this weekend.

NOAA’s GFS model is typical of current solutions. It brings a mixed bag of ice into the Twin Cities late Friday night into Saturday morning. Then it changes to mostly rain in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, with steadier, heavier snow across western and northern Minnesota.

If this storm track verifies it would lay down a band of heavier snow across much of western, central, and northern Minnesota. This track would produce little snow for the greater Twin Cities area.

I’ll post the early look at NOAA’s GFS (Kuchera) snowfall output below. The best way to use this now is to ignore specific snowfall output and focus on the notion of the heavier snow band placement from western through northern Minnesota.

Of course, if the storm track shifts south this week, that would bring the Twin Cities into greater play for accumulating snowfall. Let’s see what the forecast models do for the rest of this week.

As we say in the weather biz, stay tuned!