Slop drop: Freezing rain, sleet, rain, snow set to mess with Minnesota
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A mild Friday leads to a messy Saturday of freezing rain and rain with snowfall Saturday night. Expect highs Friday in the 30s and 40s in southern Minnesota and 20s north. Freezing rain is possible across central Minnesota overnight Friday into Saturday.
Rain and thunder come Saturday with snowfall Saturday night. The best chances of heavier snowfall, perhaps 3 to as much as 7 or 8 inches, will fall in a narrow band from west-central Minnesota northeast to Lake Superior; 1 or 2 inches or less is likely in the Twin Cities region.
Mild before the mess
We’ll see a milder day again Friday after a chilly Thursday. High temperatures will be well into the 30s and even 40s in southwest Minnesota late Friday. It’ll be in the 20s in northern Minnesota.
Temperatures Friday night will be critical to who sees ice and who sees just plain rainfall. The Twin Cities should stay just above freezing.
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Portions of west-central through central and northeastern Minnesota may see freezing rain-ice from about 11 p.m. Friday through 4 a.m. Saturday.
After the ice potential Friday night, most of southern Minnesota will see scattered rain showers during the day Saturday with a wintry mix across central Minnesota, including a potential continuing risk of freezing rain and sleet.
We could even have a few thunderstorms in southeastern Minnesota.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa into southeastern Minnesota Saturday. The main threats are wind, hail and heavy rainfall.
Many locations in southeastern Minnesota will see their warmest temperatures of the year so far, including the Twin Cities, if we top out at 45 degrees or warmer. Several places will see temperatures in the 50s southeast of the Twin Cities.
As colder air wraps in behind the center of the storm system, we’ll see rain turn to snow from southwestern Minnesota late in the afternoon and across the state through the evening Saturday.
We’ll likely see some snowfall accumulation in the Twin Cities but probably 1 to 2 inches or less.
The best chances of heavier snowfall, perhaps 3 to as much as 7 or 8 inches will fall in a narrow swath from west central Minnesota through central Minnesota northeast to Lake Superior.
Above are four different computer model scenarios all generally showing this pattern for snowfall Saturday night.
It’s worth noting the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is a little farther southeast than the other models. The Canadian model as well has the Twin Cities on the edge Saturday night. Stay tuned as it is possible the Twin Cities could see slightly higher amounts of snow if this becomes a trend.
We’ll then see slightly cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming to near 40 in the Twin Cities Tuesday. Colder air moves in late next week perhaps touching off more snow Thursday.