Weekend forecast: Wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow

Check those forecast updates this weekend because we’ll see a variety of messy weather.

A low-pressure system will spin plenty of moist air over Minnesota and western Wisconsin from late Friday into Saturday and Saturday night. Western Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota will see more hours of snow this weekend than points to the east, where there will be more hours of a wintry mix or rain.

Cooler air will rush in as the low departs Saturday night into Sunday morning, changing precipitation to a mix and then snow in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 10 p.m. Friday to 6 a.m. on Sunday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows a similar track, but a warmer temperature profile, resulting in a delayed changeover to all snow in the metro area:

Areas with the coolest temps will see the most snow from this system, with several inches possible from west-central Minnesota through northwestern Wisconsin and parts of northeastern Minnesota.

Winter weather advisories for icing begin Friday evening in portions of western Wisconsin:

Here are details of the west-central Wisconsin advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 352 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 WIZ014>016-027-041800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0013.220305T0300Z-220305T1800Z/ Polk-Barron-Rusk-Chippewa- Including the cities of Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, and Chippewa Falls 352 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Polk, Barron, Rusk and Chippewa Counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of mixed precipitation and snow is also possible. Total snow amounts will be less than an inch. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

The advisory in central Minnesota (No. 2 in the graphic above) is for a wintry mix and accumulating snow Saturday and Saturday evening:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 352 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064-041800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0013.220305T1200Z-220306T0600Z/ Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Yellow Medicine- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, and Granite Falls 352 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will start out as freezing rain before transitioning to a wintry mix and then becoming all snow late Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here’s the snow and ice forecast for northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin this weekend:

The insert shows a winter storm watch Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Here are details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 357 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 MNZ036>038-WIZ001-002-042200- /O.NEW.KDLH.WS.A.0005.220305T1800Z-220306T1200Z/ South Aitkin-Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-Douglas-Bayfield- Including the cities of Aitkin, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley, Superior, Washburn, and Bayfield 357 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...In Wisconsin, Douglas and Bayfield Counties. In Minnesota, South Aitkin, Carlton and South St. Louis and Pine Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Red Cliff Band, the Fond du Lac Band and the Mille Lacs Band, East Lake, Lena Lake and, Hinckley areas. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will likely be an area in this portion of the Winter Storm Watch that receives significantly more ice than the forecast with up to one half inch of ice accumulation possible. The combination of snow and ice will also likely make travel very difficult.

The Twin Cities metro area could see patchy light rain/freezing rain Friday evening and overnight, then mainly rain Saturday and Saturday evening with a chance of thunderstorms. That rain could change to a wintry mix later Saturday night and it is expected to end as snow Sunday morning.

At this point it looks like metro area snow accumulations will be somewhere around 1 to 2 inches later this weekend, but an eastward shift in the storm track or slightly cooler temps aloft would bring us a quicker changeover from rain or a mix to snow — leading to higher snow totals. The northwestern edge of the metro area will have a better chance of higher snow totals than the southeastern edge of the metro.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe weather outlook

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded yellow) of severe thunderstorms this Saturday and Saturday night in portions of southeastern Minnesota

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. The darker-green shaded area which includes parts of the southeast metro has a marginal risk of severe weather, meaning an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The remainder of the metro area has general (nonsevere) thunderstorms in the SPC outlook. The SPC outlook may change over the next 24 hours.

Weekend temps

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 36 degrees on March 5. The metro area can expect highs in the upper 40s this Saturday. Highs will range from 20s in northwestern Minnesota to 50s in far southeastern Minnesota Saturday afternoon:

Sunday highs will be in the 20s across much of Minnesota, with 30s in the Twin Cities plus southeastern Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.