Shifting models: Heavy snow potential lurking closer to the Twin Cities by Thursday?
Another forecast model suggests heavy snow just southeast of MSP Thursday
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Keep an eye out for changing weather forecasts and advisories over the next 24 hours Minnesota.
Forecast models are in flux about precipitation types, and a possible second wave of heavy snowfall for parts of southeast Minnesota not far from the southeast Twin Cities.
Calm before the slop
It’s the calm before the slop overnight into Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will make the 40s across southern Minnesota with mostly 30s up north.
Note the huge warm surge in the central plains with 80s into Kansas. That big temperature contrast will help deepen our inbound storm.
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Messy storm Tuesday night into Thursday
First, lets hit the winter storm watch for northeast Minnesota that goes into effect Tuesday evening into Thursday.
Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais
351 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Locally higher snowfall amounts are possible. Winds could gust to 40 mph Tuesday night.
* WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Cook and Southern Lake Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation.
* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
The forecast of heavy snow has shifted a little bit eastward with Tuesday afternoons forecast packages.
Wild card: Heavy snow band across southeast Minnesota Wednesday night?
The going forecasts early Monday suggested mostly rain for the Twin Cities and southeast Minnesota. Precipitation totals (liquid) favor an inch of mostly rain from around the Twin Cities to points south and east. And Monday’s snow forecast mostly supports lighter snowfall totals for most of southern Minnesota.
But trends in Tuesday forecast models keep hinting at a possible second wave of moisture arriving as the sub-freezing air arrives Wednesday night. That could set up a narrow but heavy band of snow from across southeast Minnesota. NOAA’s afternoon 18Z NAM 3 km resolution model picks up on the trend started by the American GFS model Monday morning.
If this solution evolves, a narrow quick-hitting band of heavy snow could drop a few quick inches underneath Wednesday night. If this develops, where it sets up still looks in flux. It could happen from near the Twin Cities, south and east into southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin.
So there are still a few wild cards in the forecast for Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully, Tuesday’s forecast model runs will come into sync and provide more clarity, consensus, and forecast certainty. In theory anyway.
Stay tuned.