Severe storm threat for southern Minnesota late Tuesday

A risk of severe thunderstorms late Tuesday is the big headline of the weather. That risk stretches all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico. An enhanced slight risk stretches from far southern Minnesota into Iowa and eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.

It will still be mild Tuesday, mainly in the 50s and low 60s in southern Minnesota but we’ll already see some scattered showers in the afternoon ahead of the ‘main event’ this evening.

Thunderstorms will develop to the west in eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska ahead of an area of low pressure and just north of a warm front. This forecast loop is 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. Tuesday:

The greatest risk of tornadoes will be in Iowa, but the forecast ‘significant tornado index’ does brush far southern Minnesota Tuesday evening.

Where precisely the warm front sets up along with multiple dynamic processes will determine how far north that highest level of severity reaches.

Rain and snow then develop Tuesday night in far northwest Minnesota and will spread east through the end of the week. Parts of far northwest Minnesota could see several inches to a foot of snow.

North Dakota will bear the brunt of the worst wintry weather with blizzard conditions. Up to 1 to 2 feet of snow will fall with winds gusting to over 50 mph; potentially the worst April blizzard since 1997. That storm killed two people and wiped out nearly 10 percent of the state’s cattle herd, mostly vulnerable calves and yearlings. The National Weather Service office in Bismarck has a lot more information on the historic nature of that blizzard here.