A bit warmer Wednesday; more rain Thursday, Saturday

We should see a fair amount of sun, although clouds will increase Wednesday ahead of another round of showers Thursday. More significant rain moves in for the weekend.

A little warmer Wednesday

With some filtered sun Wednesday as clouds increase, we will see warmer temperatures in the afternoon. We’ll still be below the normal for most, however.

Showers develop late tonight into Thursday. They’ll be more scattered rather than any all-day rainfall. Amounts will generally be less than one-half inch for most.

A mainly dry day Friday will settle in with highs close to 60 degrees in the south and 50s across much of the state.

An even wetter weekend

A more significant and slower-moving storm system arrives Friday night bringing clouds, wind and rain for the weekend. That system has the potential to dump more than 1 inch of rainfall for much of southern and western Minnesota.

Of particular concern is the overlap of some of the heaviest precipitation over the Red River basin, where many gauges are at moderate to major flood stage already.

The Red River at Grand Forks, N.D., is cresting Wednesday into Thursday but may remain high or even increase if weekend rainfall is substantial:

Likely cool start to May but trending upward

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center gives us better odds than not of cooler-than-normal temperatures in May. That is largely in line with most Mays that follow a significantly cold April, such as this year.

A reminder, however, that summers that follow a cold April are usually hotter than normal. You can think of it as warming up all the cold air early rather than spreading it out.

If we look at the trends in the forecast models compared to normal, we do see them coming into alignment in the second week of May. I do think the second half of May will be much warmer than the first half.