Cool Sunday; shower chances in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin

The Saturday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 71 degrees. That’s 5 degrees shy of our average June 4 high, but it felt good.

Much of central Minnesota and parts of northern Minnesota had Saturday highs in the 70s, but far southern Minnesota saw a lot of 60s. Light winds overnight will allow temps to fall into the 30s in parts of northeastern Minnesota, where a frost advisory has been posted for 1 a.m. to 8 a.m. Sunday:

Here are details of the frost advisory:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 447 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 MNZ010>012-019-051000- /O.NEW.KDLH.FR.Y.0005.220605T0600Z-220605T1300Z/ Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake- Central St. Louis- Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella, and Hibbing 447 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Low temperatures of 33 to 36 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Koochiching, North St. Louis, Northern Cook and Lake and Central St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Bois Forte Band, Lake Vermilion and, Nett Lake areas. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light winds and clear skies will make for a very good radiational cooling night. Sensitive plants should be covered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

When winds are light, temps near the ground will be several degrees colder than the official temps that are measured 5 feet above the ground.

Rainy River Basin flooding update

The green-shaded area in far northern Minnesota on the previous map has a frost advisory plus a flood warning.

Here are details of the flood warning:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 408 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 MNC071-137-062100- /O.CON.KDLH.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220606T2100Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Koochiching MN-St. Louis MN- 408 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 ...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues. Namakan and Rainy Lake have both surpassed levels set during the 2014 peak levels. * WHERE...Portions of north central Minnesota and northeast Minnesota, including the following counties, in north central Minnesota, Koochiching. In northeast Minnesota, St. Louis. * WHEN...Until 400 PM CDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lakes, rivers, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Several structures are flooded and some sand bagging operations are continuing. Low-water crossings are inundated with water and may not be passable. Expect many areas of slow moving or standing water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 355 PM CDT, Emergency management reported ongoing extensive flooding. - Mostly dry weather is expected this week, but rises will likely continue. Namakan and Kabetogama Lakes were at 1122.3 feet as of June 3, which is 22 inches above the peak level set in 2014 and 6 inches below the 1916 peak. The level of Namakan Lake is expected to fall by 2 to 3 inches between June 3 and June 10. Rainy Lake was at 1112.9 feet as of June 3 which is 19 inches above the 2014 flooding peak and matches the record peak of 1950. Rainy Lake is expected to rise by 9 to 10 inches between June 3 and June 10. A peak is unlikely before mid- June on Rainy Lake regardless of precipitation patterns. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... International Falls, Kabetogama, Crane Lake, Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Rainy Lake East, Rainy Lake West, northwestern Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, Ranier, Ray, Island View, Ericksburg, Johnson Lake and Sand Point Lake. - Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood http://www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Once levels have peaked, it will take a matter of weeks to a month for levels to decline to near normal summer levels. Additional rainfall will prolong the time it takes for levels to recede.

The Duluth NWS office reported on Friday that Rainy Lake had reached a new record height:

Here’s a summary of flooding conditions in the Rainy River Basin:

The NWS Rainy River Basin page has additional information on the flooding.

Reporter Dan Kraker and other MPR News staff compiled a detailed account of the flood woes residents of the region are facing.

Rain chances

Much of southeastern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin will see some showers Sunday evening. A few very spotty showers are also possible elsewhere in southern Minnesota and in central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Southeastern Minnesota could have scattered showers Sunday morning. Forecast models don’t agree on Sunday afternoon and evening rain chances.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from noon Sunday to 11 p.m. Sunday:

You’ll notice the main swath of rain spreading across southern Minnesota during the afternoon and evening hours.

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows a less expansive area of rain in southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and evening, with additional areas of rain in the remainder of Minnesota:

We’ll see if the forecast models come to a consensus about Sunday afternoon and evening rain chances when new runs of the models arrive later Sunday morning.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s:

Sunday afternoon wind gusts are expected to be in the 10 to 16 mph range in many areas, but gusts could be close to 20 mph in far northwestern Minnesota:

Forecast wind gusts are in knots, with 14 knots equal to 16.1 mph.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 70 on Monday, followed by highs in the lower 70s Tuesday through Friday.

Temps may be a bit cooler than normal next weekend into the following week. Warmer temps are possible in the second half of June. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a slight tendency for above-normal temps in the southeastern half of Minnesota and much of Wisconsin from June 18 through July 1:

We’ll see if that pans out.

Weather nugget

The average Twin Cities temperature in May (that’s the average of all the daily high temps and low temps) was 1.5 degrees warmer than normal. May was the first warmer than normal month in the Twin Cities since December. Last year, we had 10 consecutive warmer than normal months in the Twin Cities (March through December).  

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.