Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

100 degrees again? Signs of an intense July heat wave emerging for Minnesota.

Forecast models suggest temperatures could reach 100 degrees again.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

You knew we weren’t done with the heat just yet right?

File this forecast under still too early to be certain, but increasingly likely by the day.

The upper air pattern over North America and forecast models are suggesting that a massive heat dome may develop over the central U.S. in about a week to 10 days.

NOAA’s GFS model shows a massive high-pressure heat dome building across the central U.S. northward into Minnesota and the Upper Midwest between about July 16 and 20.

NOAA GFS 500 millibar height anomaly
NOAA GFS 500 millibar height anomaly July 16 to 20.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The trend has been persistent on the GFS forecast model this week. Though the potential heat event is still a week away, the persistence of the trend suggests growing confidence, especially if the trend continues through the weekend model runs.

NOAA’s temperature outlooks for next week show the start of the trend as conditions strongly favor heat across the western U.S. nudging into Minnesota late next week.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

Highs will likely push into the 90s across parts of Minnesota as soon as next Friday.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday.
NOAA

And the eight to 14-day outlook paints a deep red hot bull’s eye favoring above-average temperatures right over the Upper Midwest.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

It’s still too early to pinpoint the precise magnitude and duration of the potential heat wave. But early indications suggest there could be a swath of 100-degree-plus temperatures from Nebraska into Minnesota around July 19 and 20.

NOAA’s GFS model may be overdoing things this far out, but 110 to 117 degrees will get your attention on a forecast run.

NOAA GFS temperature output
NOAA GFS temperature output for 1 pm Wednesday, July 20.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The GFS is also cranking out some oppressively stifling tropical dew point values into the 80s for southern Minnesota around July 19 and 20.

NOAA GFS model dew point
NOAA GFS model dew point output for 7 pm Tuesday, July 19.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

So enjoy our comfy Saturday and most of next week. The hottest air of summer may arrive in about 10 days.

Stay tuned.