Stormy to steamy: Overnight storms rumble, a string of 90s likely next week
A few storms could be strong to severe Thursday evening into Friday morning
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Things may go bump in the night across parts of Minnesota into Friday morning.
An upper-air wave riding over a warm front will trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in much of Minnesota Thursday night into early Friday. These nocturnal-type storms can blossom on warm summer nights, especially in July and August.
There is a slight risk for severe storms for much of western Minnesota and a marginal risk to the east including the Twin Cities. (See map above.)
The bulk of the storm action favors western Minnesota in the evening hours. By late Thursday night, clusters of strong to severe storms look likely to rumble across much of Minnesota and into the greater Twin Cities area.
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Forecast models suggest the most favored window for storms around the Twin Cities has moved up a bit. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model cranks up scattered storm clusters closer to midnight and beyond around the greater Twin Cities.
Locally heavy rainfall possible
This is one of those nights when I wish we could just take all the moisture and spread it around so that everyone who needs an inch of rain could get it. But a developing warm front may focus heavier rainfall cells along either side of the Interstate 94 corridor between Fargo, N.D., and the Twin Cities.
Many areas along this corridor could pick up a very nice one-half to 1 inch of rainfall. But I’m seeing indications of locally heavier rainfall zones Thursday night as storms tend to train along the same areas.
We could have some multi-inch rainfall zones by Friday morning on either side of the I-94 corridor. The potential for 2 to 3-plus inches of rain is there locally.
NOAA’s Global Forecast System model paints a multi-inch rainfall zone mainly east of I-94.
NOAA’s Weather Research and Forecasting model lays out a narrow but heavy rain band mainly west of I-94. This model suggests local rainfall pockets of 2 to 4 inches-plus.
The weekend forecast looks summery but nice overall. But it looks like a string of 90s is heading for Minnesota next week. By Sunday highs will reach the 90s in much of southern and western Minnesota.
Temperatures are likely to peak around 100 degrees in western Minnesota next week.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is cranking out highs between 96 and 99 degrees for the Twin Cities next Monday and Tuesday. Peak summer is heading for Minnesota.
Stay tuned.
