Severe Risk Saturday: Forecast models differ on storm timing.

The big picture on Saturday’s severe weather risk remains the same for Minnesota. Scattered storms are likely to develop and cross most areas of Minnesota Saturday. A few of those cells will likely reach severe limits and could produce 70+ mph wind gusts and or large 2” diameter hailstones.

Severe weather outlook products come out at various times of day from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Local NWS offices update as they can with forecast cycles. The Twin Cities NWS Office updated their severe threat package for Saturday on Friday afternoon.

Here’s the latest read on damaging wind threats. There is a 30 percent chance for severe gusts within 25 miles of any spot across most of southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities. The potential area for wind gusts to 75 mph is hatched.

Powerful storm updrafts around 100 mph and freezing air aloft means Saturday’s storms are likely to be ‘hailers.’ The potential for hailstones 2” or greater in diameter is there with stronger storms Saturday.

Forecast model storm timing varies

Forecast models differ on precise storm coverage and timing. That’s pretty typical with summer convective weather.

NOAA’s HRRR model suggests storms ongoing around the South Dakota border around 7 a.m. Saturday that could rumble into the greater Twin Cities as early as the late morning.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model paints scattered strong to severe storm potential around the Twin Cities area through the afternoon hours.

So keep an eye out for severe weather watches and warnings Saturday. And be aware if you’re outdoors, especially on the lakes. Storms may be moving in quickly from the west Saturday. Highs winds and hail could hit fast, and hard.