Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Soaking rain potential this weekend?

Spotty rain fell again Tuesday night. Heavier rain potential this weekend?

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts precipitation output through Sunday.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

It’s been a dry summer for parts of Minnesota.

The Twin Cities recorded just 1.18 inches of rain in July. That’s nearly three inches below the average of 4.06.

Over the past 30 days, most of the areas that recorded average rainfall (green on the map below) were across southern and northern parts of Minnesota. You can see on the 30-day precipitation departure that the Twin Cities and much of central Minnesota recorded well below average rainfall.

30-day precipitation
30-day precipitation totals.
Midwest Regional Climate Center

That’s why we’re scanning the weather maps for additional rainfall these days, and a few forecast models suggest there could be some soaking rains for parts of Minnesota this weekend.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model paints scattered, slow-moving thunderstorm potential.

We don’t rely on this for specific storm coverage and timing this far out, but it may be informative for the overall pattern of scattered heavier rain cells this weekend. The loop below runs between 7 p.m. Friday and 7 p.m. Sunday.

NOAA GFS model Thursday and Friday
Global Forecast System model this weekend.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model cranks out some impressive rainfall totals through this weekend. Again, it’s early. But I haven’t seen forecast model output for weeks that suggest this widespread rainfall totals of one to more than two inches.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation forecast through Sunday.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

We’ll keep an eye on forecast models to see if the potential for soaking rains this weekend continues.

Stay tuned.